A theory: It has been accepted scientific wisdom that the virus’ R0 is ~2.4 and the CFR between 1-2%. The data and common sense suggest to me that the R0 is much higher, perhaps approaching measles at 12-18. If this is true, the CFR must be much lower perhaps similar to the flu.
Estimates of the R0 are based on extremely limited testing. If one is asymptomatic, there is no incentive to be tested. In NYC now, even if you are symptomatic, your doctor will discourage you from getting tested as there is no benefit in doing so as the treatment is the same.
If in fact the R0 is high and the asymptomatic % is high, this suggests a much lower than estimated fatality rate and a much greater probability of herd immunity developing. The fact that approaching 5% of Telluride may be infected with no symptoms suggests higher density cities
like NYC may have an extremely high infection rate along with a high asymptomatic population. This bodes well for herd immunity in higher density cities. I could be totally wrong but common sense tells me this is worth exploring. Broad antibody testing will answer this question.
