Thread by @jburnmurdoch

NEW: Sun 5 April update of coronavirus trajectories

Daily new deaths:
• US now recording more daily deaths than any country in the world since outbreaks began
• UK still on similar path to Italy, suggesting ~2 weeks from peak daily deaths

Live charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

How does that look cumulatively?
• US death toll has now passed Italy’s, and is on a much steeper slope than Italy was at this stage
• US could have the highest total death toll globally within a week

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now daily new cases:
• Tens of thousands of new cases per day in the US due to simultaneous outbreaks in many states. The price of no national lockdown.
• France, Germany, Italy and Spain seeing new cases plateau or begin to dip
• Japan’s delayed outbreak accelerating

Cases in cumulative form:
• Y-axis extended to 500k to accommodate the US, which is now unquestionably the global centre of coronavirus
• Australia and Ireland = Anglophone countries on flatter curves
• Brazil still tracking UK ⚠️

Now subnational region daily deaths:
• NY now has more daily deaths than Lombardy recorded at its peak, but it’s taken 3 fewer weeks to get there, and is still rising 📈
• NJ about to pass Lombardy’s trajectory
• Daily death toll in London still rising each day

Subnational death tolls cumulatively:
• NY approaching 5k deaths, and on a much steeper curve than Lombardy at the same stage. Almost certain to pass Lombardy and see the world’s highest subnational death toll

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now our newest chart: small multiples of daily deaths in subnational regions:
• We’ve added lines for England, Scotland & Wales (N.Ireland to come). England by far the steepest of the UK countries, followed by Scotland
• London’s death toll still rising faster than Wuhan’s did

Small multiples for daily new deaths in 41 countries:
• Algeria on a very steep curve ⚠️
• Portugal’s acceleration slowing
• Sweden still tracking China
• Ireland on a shallower curve than UK

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Finally, small multiples for daily cases in 63 countries:
• Sweden v Norway still instructive. Norway locked down & new cases falling, Sweden didn’t & each day brings more new infections
• New cases in New Zealand are flat

Live versions of all charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Things to note:
• The data is noisy & subject to all sorts of tricky caveats
• e.g most countries reporting deaths in hospital. Many deaths occur in nursing homes etc; we hope to add these in future
• Point being: watch for general trends. Focus on slopes, not specific numbers

Here’s a video where I explain why we’re using log scales, showing absolute numbers instead of per capita, and much more:

https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1244519429825802240

And a chart showing why we're using absolute numbers rather than population-adjusted rates:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1244380095164420101

Analysis of Chinese movie box office revenues shows that lockdowns won’t be lifted overnight, and life may take many months to return to normal.

Restrictions will be released bit by bit, only to be reinstated wholly or in part as infections pick up again

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246135176461254657

And @google data shows that people in the US are still out and about much more than their counterparts in several European countries:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246123616040779776

Please email [e-mail] with feedback, requests & subnational data.

All of these are invaluable, and we continue to incorporate your suggestions and data every day.

We’ll keep getting back to as many people as possible.

Wishing you all restful Sunday nights :-)

We implemented lots of reader suggestions today:
• Labeled Ireland
• Added lines for England, Wales & Scotland
• Added lots more countries to the small multiples
• Reinstated Iran’s line

Keep those suggestions coming to [e-mail]: we’re listening 🗣👂👍

Oh and almost forgot, today's chart-fuel was spaghetti alla ragu. Best ragu we've made yet 👌