Thread by @jburnmurdoch

NEW: Wed 8 April update of coronavirus trajectories

NB: we’ve reverted to the 7-day moving average

Daily new deaths:
• General trend in US and UK is still more deaths every day than the last
• Japan joins this chart, deaths tracking Italy

Live charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now cumulative deaths:
• US has cut straight thought Italy’s curve; on course for highest death toll globally within ~5 days
• Australia still looking promising
• UK still parallel to Italy

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now daily new cases:
• US slope softening, but due in part to the weekend reporting dip. Careful before declaring a plateau here ⚠️
• Austria’s new cases have now been falling for 10 days. They plan to ease lockdown next week 👀

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

And cases cumulatively:
• US infections still rising more steeply than in any other country this far into its outbreak
• Reported Indian infections picking up speed after slow early pace

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now ~subnational~ daily deaths:
• NY seeing far higher daily deaths than those recorded in any other part of the world at any time
• London still on trend of more deaths each day than the last
• Catalonia & Madrid look to be past their peak

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Subnational death tolls cumulatively:
• NY likely to have world’s highest subnational death toll within days

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now small multiples of subnational daily deaths:
• We’re showing UK countries here: England still increasing much more steeply than Scotland & Wales; many more deaths every day than the last
• Stockholm sloping steadily up
• Illinois added

Small multiples for daily new deaths in 42 countries:
• Norway locked down while Sweden didn’t; Norway’s daily death toll rising much more slowly than Sweden’s
• Brazil & Turkey tracking China
• Ireland much shallower curve than UK

Finally, small multiples for daily cases in 64 countries:
• Japan’s delayed outbreak continues ⚠️
• New Zealand’s early action means it may have turned the corner early 🇳🇿📉

Live versions of all charts here: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Things to note:
• Daily covid data is extremely noisy and implies false precision
• This is why we use a rolling average. Watch for general trends. Focus on slopes, not specific daily numbers
• Read last night’s thread for more on this

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1247666977566490626

Here’s a video where I explain why we’re using log scales, showing absolute numbers instead of per capita, and much more:

https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1244519429825802240

And a chart showing why we're using absolute numbers rather than population-adjusted rates:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1244380095164420101

Last but not least, all eyes on Wuhan, which lifted lockdown last night, 7 weeks after peak daily deaths. Traffic levels already rising in our tracker 👀

Question is whether or not the region will see a second wave in cases

Follow our lockdown tracker: ft.com/content/0c1375…

Please email [e-mail] with feedback, requests & subnational data.

All of these are invaluable, and we incorporate your suggestions and data every day.

We’ll keep getting back to as many people as possible.

Happy Wednesday night, one and all :-)

Oh, and tonight's dinner was an @ottolenghi:

Roasted sweet potato, tomato sauce and feta (we swapped in Greek yoghurt for the feta) theguardian.com/food/2020/feb/…