If New York's outbreak is peaking, it's just about two weeks after the stay-at-home order.
That's the exact same amount of time lockdowns took to make the outbreaks peak in Italy and Wuhan. And it means most other states will peak this week.
That's the exact same amount of time lockdowns took to make the outbreaks peak in Italy and Wuhan. And it means most other states will peak this week.
Remember, though an outbreak peaking means the rate of case growth goes linear. And deaths follow cases with a lag, so they'll take even longer to go linear, then longer for the rate of increase to fall, then even longer to go to a low level.
The rest of April will be rough.
The rest of April will be rough.
Now we have to focus on getting #TestAndTrace systems in place everywhere, so that we can start lifting lockdowns in May without the virus roaring back, killing more tens of thousands, and devastating our economy for more months.
We must prepare NOW.
We must prepare NOW.
