Thread by @cfishman

US Coronavirus Update, Sunday, April 5, 2020
~ The percentages keep sliding

Fatalities First

• Total US covid-19 deaths, Sun, April 5: 9,633

• Increase in the last 24 hours: 1,226 (+15%)

--> 4th day of US deaths over 1,200

--> 3rd day increase is 18% or less

2/ Fauci, Birx, Adams (Surgeon General), Trump all warning this will be a grim week.

1,200 deaths a day — that's the equivalent for four big jet-crashes every day.

But the trend shows the incredible power of stay-at-home practices to suffocate the virus.

3/ Death toll doubling rate:

• Sunday, March 22: 2.3 days

• Sunday, March 29: 3 days

• Sunday, April 5: 5 days

Deaths did increase on Sunday, April 4. But the total of new deaths was less than Saturday, just a bit less, but smaller nonetheless.

4/ Now, confirmed cases...

• Total confirmed US cases, Sun, April 5: 337,274

• Increase in cases in last 24 hours: 28,524 (+ 9%)

--> 2nd day in a row, absolute number of cases lower than the previous day

--> Absolute cases Sunday are 2,373 less than Saturday

5/ We put the entire country on hold. We closed almost every business that doesn't have to do with providing food, medical care, or transportation.

Two weeks and two days into the real national stay-at-home effort, increase in new cases is less than 10%.

6/ This is what we needed to happen.

• Last day of case increase 10% or lower: March 1

• Doubling rate of new cases:

3 Sundays ago: 2.1 days
2 Sundays ago: 2.4 days
1 Sunday ago: 4 days
Sunday: 6 days

7/ The US struggle is not over.

Cases continue to rise fast in:

Colo
Ariz
Illinois
Wis

Most important: Hundreds of thousands of Americans are now infected.

We got to 330,000 cases & 9,600 deaths from tiny numbers.

US cases, March 5: 221
US cases, April 5: 337,274

8/ Today, we'll hit 10,000 deaths in the US.

We'll hit 350,000 cases total in the US.

Just last Monday, we had only 160,000 cases and 3,000 deaths.

The key now is not to relax. Staying home works — but if covid-19 was dangerous on March 6, today it is everywhere.

9/ Regular life? The life of February 20?

That requires testing.

Disease testing and antigen testing.

--> Disease testing tells you who is sick.
--> Antigen testing tells you who had the disease and has recovered.

10/ To fill an office with colleagues again, you want everyone tested as they walk in the door. A 10-minute quick test.

To fill a lecture hall, a movie theater, even a restaurant, you want everyone tested so you know the virus isn't lurking.

Test everyone. Then test them again.

11/ The economy of the US last year: $21.73 trillion

That's $59.5 billion of economic activity a day.

We can afford universal testing (and treatment & a vaccine, too).

Staying home is working dramatically, as we were told.

Testing is the path back — with confidence.

This tweet (#9) has an error:

The 2nd test is antibody testing.

Looking for antibodies your own body has made to fight off the virus.

Good rundown on testing below (which I should have read).

…Thanks to @destintiger1

ft.com/content/0faf8e…