Confirmed US cases today, Monday: 4,661
Increase since Sunday night: +1,162 (33%)
US cases are doubling every 3 days.
Today, we *added* more cases than US had total last Wednesday.
That’s what exponential growth looks like. Small. Then explosive.
Increase since Sunday night: +1,162 (33%)
US cases are doubling every 3 days.
Today, we *added* more cases than US had total last Wednesday.
That’s what exponential growth looks like. Small. Then explosive.
2/ Cases tested today might have been transmitted as long as 2 weeks ago — the 1,162 new cases confirmed today were seeded back when the count was 100 or so.
That’s why the worst is coming:
2 weeks ago few in the US took cv19 seriously—and those who had it spread it easily.
That’s why the worst is coming:
2 weeks ago few in the US took cv19 seriously—and those who had it spread it easily.
3/ We take it very seriously now. Let’s say serious efforts at social distancing started last Friday.
Infection / incubation period is 2 weeks.
Cases are likely to soar all of this week and most of next.
Only then will the recent preventive measures show up in the count.
Infection / incubation period is 2 weeks.
Cases are likely to soar all of this week and most of next.
Only then will the recent preventive measures show up in the count.
4/ The very smart moves we’re taking today, yesterday, tomorrow — they’ll prevent infections.
But we have to wait two weeks to see the spread slow down from these strong measures.
But we have to wait two weeks to see the spread slow down from these strong measures.
5/ That’s why the experts are so worried:
The disease gets to run wild for 10-14 more days *after* the lockdowns take hold.
Doubling every three days means...by the end of next week — Friday, 3/27 — we could easily be at 75,000 cases.
That’s when the restrictions kick in.
The disease gets to run wild for 10-14 more days *after* the lockdowns take hold.
Doubling every three days means...by the end of next week — Friday, 3/27 — we could easily be at 75,000 cases.
That’s when the restrictions kick in.
6/ Does that seem hard to believe?
Just 5 days ago, US was at 1,100 cases total.
Now more than 4X that. 5 days.
The geometric increase is kicking in.
But even if we get to 75,000 cases in 10-12 days, we’ll be so glad we locked down *now*.
Because then the growth will slow.
Just 5 days ago, US was at 1,100 cases total.
Now more than 4X that. 5 days.
The geometric increase is kicking in.
But even if we get to 75,000 cases in 10-12 days, we’ll be so glad we locked down *now*.
Because then the growth will slow.
7/ The last 3 days have been crucial.
But as the virus grew patiently, we’ll have to be calm & patient to stop it.
The benefit of the hard next 2 weeks will come...starting the weekend of March 28 & 29.
Meantime, read a book. Organize your digital photos.
But as the virus grew patiently, we’ll have to be calm & patient to stop it.
The benefit of the hard next 2 weeks will come...starting the weekend of March 28 & 29.
Meantime, read a book. Organize your digital photos.
8/ We are taking the momentum out of covid19 — for certain.
But it will be a while before we see how well we’ve done that.
But it will be a while before we see how well we’ve done that.
9/ ‘History will not forgive us for waiting an hour more,’ said San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo, whose city is the most populous in the Bay Area and the epicenter of the area’s outbreak. • Liccardo gets it: Every hour matters, when the benefit takes 2 weeks to kick in.
