Thread by @cfishman

US Coronavirus Update, Friday, April 3, 2020
~ Big numbers, surprising numbers

Fatalities First

• Total US covid-19 deaths, Fri, April 3: 7,152

• Increase in the last 24 hours: 1,203 (+20%)

--> 2nd day during pandemic US deaths over 1,000
--> 50 deaths / hour

2/ On fatalities, the news is good & bad.

• The scale & pace of deaths is becoming numbing

— Mon, 3/23, total US deaths: 3,008

— Added deaths, Mon-Fri: 4,144

--> 4 days of deaths are greater than 23 days of deaths

3/ But notice something key in those arresting numbers:

It took 4 days for deaths to double this week.
The fatality curve is starting to bend, every-so-slightly.

Average increase in deaths, Mon-Fri:

• March 23-27: 30.8%

• Mar 30 - Apr 3: 23.8%

4/ Not to pile up the percentages, but this week, the rate of increase in deaths is 20% lower than last week.

If deaths this week had increased the same pace as last week...

• 8,804 would be dead

• 7,152 is actual total

5/ Real people are alive this Saturday morning because of what we started doing 2 and 3 Saturdays ago.

--> 1,653 avoided deaths, Mon to Fri, 3/30 to 4/3

--> Starting Monday, that's 400 fewer deaths a day this week than the previous rate of increase would have caused

6/ A couple cautions.

Those 1,653 people may, sadly, still die. Or some of them may die.

We are stretching out the pace of illness, and serious illness.

That's important: If gives doctors, nurses, techs, hospital staff the time to treat people with care & commitment.

7/ And what we're calling the 'simple rate of death' — deaths / confirmed cases — that rate is rising.

The simple-death-rate is really just a scribble on a white-board, because we know that both top & bottom of the fraction are incomplete.

8/ Many deaths are not being recorded as covid-19 when they should be.

Many people who get sick — even desperately sick — and then recover are never recorded as covid-19, because 'confirmed' means tested.

Actual cases of symptomatic disease in US 2x or 3x the daily number.

9/ But the simple-death-rate has an internal consistency, based on our testing ability & death-reporting.

Fri, Mar 20: 1.2%
Fri, Mar 27: 1.6%
Fri, April 3: 2.6%

Despite the muddiness of the figure:

• Deaths rising faster than new cases
• Ability to provide care is falling

10/ Here is the rate of increase in deaths this week, Monday to Friday, starting with 3/30:

Mon: 22%
Tue: 30%
Wed: 31%
Thu: 16%
Friday: 20%

The most optimistic note is Thu & Fri: In weeks, we have not had back-to-back days of such low increases.

11/ What the scientists & epidemiologist knew a month ago, when they urged us to shelter-in-place while things seemed 'not too bad':

The number of deaths & cases is now so high, the math is unforgiving:

20% increase in deaths / day: +1,400

15% increase in deaths / day: +1,100

12/ Now, confirmed cases...

• Total confirmed US cases, Fri, April 3: 277,953

• Increase in cases in last 24 hours: 32,883 (+13%)

--> 1st day of increase over 30,000 in 1 day
--> 4 days in a row, increase over 25,000 per day

But: Cases took 5 days to double.

13/ The change in the doubling rate is significant.

Last Saturday morning, 3/28, cases had almost doubled in 3 days.

Two Saturdays ago, 3/21, cases had tripled in 3 days.

The change in the pace at which people are getting sick is real & dramatic.

14/ Here's how the rate is changing. For each day of the week, the % rate of increase in new case this week & last week.

• Mon 16 v 33
• Tue 15 v 25
• Wed 14 v 20
• Thu 14 v 27
• Fri 13 v 22

That shows the change: sharp & distinct. Not likely an oddity in data.

15/ The bad news is, US new cases grew by an astonishing absolute number on Friday: +32,883

That's 1,370 new cases confirmed an hour.

23 cases a minute, every minute of the day.

And that is with the lowest rate of increase — +13% — in a single day in many weeks.

16/ Every day this week, the rate at which cases increased was static, or it went down.

Why?

Because 2 weeks ago, we all started staying home.

Adding 32,883 cases is what success looks like, for now.

Even at +10% — a 7-day doubling rate — we will now add 28,000 cases / day.

17/ Dr. Anthony Fauci had written these numbers down 2 months ago. He didn't predict the future. He calculated it.

18/ Tuesday of this week (3/31), Dr. Fauci said:

'We've got to brace ourselves.…We're going to continue to see things go up. We cannot be discouraged by that, because the mitigation is actually working & will work.'

1,653 people are alive this morning because we stayed home. #