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Hong Kong University has a “real-time” with a plot of R effective measured every day!

That’s impressive.

Plotted on the same time axis as the case plots below so you can match them up.

covid19.sph.hku.hk/dashboard https://t.co/asZMgKJnWk
Think about how R (the number of infections on average passed on by one infectee) is calculated:

R = D * O *T * S

D = Duration of infectivity (time units)
O = Opportunities for infection per time unit
T = Transmission probability
S = Susceptibility of the population
The cellphone mobility data can be used to give an estimate of O, Opportunities for infection per day, if you have a model of how people move and interact from cellphone data.
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Dr Kevin Purcell
@kevinpurcell
UW Virology Lab posts a preprint of “comparative review” of seven primer/probe RT-PCR tests.

Comparative Performance of SARS-CoV-2 Detection Assays using Seven Different Primer/Probe Sets and One Assay Kit

Spoiler alert: they all worked 😀 medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
“We report here our observations comparing three different RNA extraction methods.”

“We also compare the performance of SARS-CoV-2 detection assays using seven different primer/probe sets and one assay kit.”
Seven primer/probe sets:

University of Washington (UW) RdRp primer/probe set

Corman N-gene, RdRp, and E-gene primer/probe sets.

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) N1, 91 N2, and N3 sets

Assay

The BGI RT-PCR detection kit (BGI)
Read 11 tweets
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Dr Kevin Purcell
@kevinpurcell
2019-nCoV: preliminary estimates of the confirmed-case-fatality-ratio and infection-fatality-ratio, and initial pandemic risk assessment

The revision of CFR upwards is now ‘possibly comparable to 1918’ may meaningfully impact risk perception. institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/an…
“the shift in framing brought about by this three-fold revision [by including delay in case ascertainment rate] from ‘possibly comparable to the 1957 flu but not 1918’ to ‘possibly comparable to 1918’ may meaningfully impact risk perception.”
“With this additional adjustment and using the same methodology and data from the original version of this report, the corrected estimate of the infection-fatality-ratio (IFR) is 0.94 (0.37, 2.9) percent.”
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