Thread by @NateSilver538

Newly-reported US COVID-19 deaths:

Mon 4/6—1182
Sun 4/5—1184
Sat 4/4—1352
Fri 4/3—1178
Thu 4/2—1084
Wed 4/1—954
Tue 3/31—807
Mon 3/30—511
Sun 3/29—463
Sat 3/28—435
Fri 3/27—367
Thu 3/26—263
Wed 3/25—225
Tue 3/24—204
Mon 3/23—73
Sun 3/22—126
Sat 3/21—53
Fri 3/20—59
Thu 3/19—48

So, there's a lot going on here.

There's been a slowdown. But also important: there may be some day-of-week effects. The last two Tuesdays were quite bad. Possible there's a backlog of cases on weekends that then finally make it into Tuesday's reporting.

Source as usual is @COVID19Tracking. Also, there's *clearly* been a New York slowdown, which is tending to dominate the data; NY vs. rest of country may be on somewhat different trajectories.

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1247280124300365824?s=20

Meanwhile, 17% of newly-reported tests in the past 3 days have been positive, as compared with 22% in the week before that. That's good since it shouldn't be as subject to day-of-week effects. It still could be subject to NY vs. rest-of-country effects, though.

Actually, on second glance, there has also been flattening in the rest of the country.

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1247296887474003968?s=20

NY state newly-reported deaths:
Mon 4/6—599
Sun 4/5—594
Sat 4/4—630
Fri 4/3—562
Thu 4/2—432

Rest of USA:
Mon 4/6—583
Sun 4/5—590
Sat 4/4—722
Fri 4/3—616
Thu 4/2—652