Thread by @DrAlbertazziUK

1/ Major Italian parties are sticking to the script concerning the recent agreement reached by EU finance ministers, according to whether they support the govt or not, & also what they need to do to compete with their own allies (e.g. League vs. Brothers of Italy). /THREAD/

2/ Makes perfect sense: the agreement is ambiguous, hard to interpret, hence citizens will take their cue from parties on whether glass half full or empty.

How these decisions will be framed in next couple days is crucial.

3/ Partito Democratico. Leader has not made comments via social media as yet (hello@nzingaretti!), but inevitably they’ll stick to the line of PD Finance Minister Gualtieri. Frame: All in all, a good first step, but Euro/Coronabonds still on the table (Netherlands say: not so)..

4/ ..we will fight for Coronabonds, good that there’s no conditionality attached to funds gained via European stability mechanism when it comes to covering health costs. PD has turned into Conte’s most loyal supporter – expect Conte today to be more critical than the PD itself..

5/ PD will also talk up the boosting of lending capacity of European Investment Bank and new scheme proposed by EU Commission to fund employee’s salaries. They’ll see the glass half full – as it was always obvious they would.

6/ M5S: They’d love to keep “one foot in and one foot out” of govt, as the League was able to do so well during the Berlusconi years (bit.ly/2XsaAVQ). They won’t manage for many reasons: lack of skill & experience;

7/ but, mainly, they are the dominant party of govt, the League was not at the time – impossible to extract themselves from such momentous decision & try to refocus attention elsewhere.

They have to own it - & the Right knows it. They are going to be hammered by Salvini & co.

8/ Hugely embarrassing for M5S that ESM is so prominent in the agreement, they have relentlessly attacked it for years. Nothing they can do in present circumstances. Damned if they do, damned if they don’t – as always since Spring 2018, as they started this disastrous exp in govt

9/ For Forza Italia, glass half empty. Criticism: there’s nothing explicit about Coronabonds, positioning themselves as critical but constructive opposition (as was expected, it's only space they can occupy on any topic, given need to differentiate themselves from radical right).

10/ League and Brothers of Italy: They’ll nuke this agreement 24/7 with accusations of betrayal for how long as possible . Good for Conte they cannot take to the streets right now...

11/ Again, what else can they do? Does this mean that Salvini/Meloni really want Italy out of the EU?

No.

Out of the Euro?

No.

12/ Pesky structural factors make it even more sci-fi than before. In present circumstances, any step in this direction would spook financial markets no end, & we know what happened in 2011 last time this happened.

Imagine now...

13/ Furthermore, with manufacturing industry in the north desperate not to lose further market shares, League would never be allowed to move in this direction. But expect a lot of talk about #Italexit by the radical right...

14/ Of course disappointment towards the EU in the country is very very real, damage done to EU credibility also very real. These events will have major negative consequences.

Yet, ultimately, facts don't care about our feelings.

15/ Populist radical right (& pundits) will keep talking abt #Italexit for some time now. Or exiting Euro. We all have to pay the bills, after all

(Whether it'll happen by accident is a completely different issue, the post is abt strategic moves vs. permanent campaigning) /END/