1/ Election to be held in the Italian central region of Umbria on Sunday. What to look for.
Short thread for those interested in wider implications.
Short thread for those interested in wider implications.
2/ The “red belt” of central Italy does not exist anymore. At the 2018 national election, both League & M5S enjoyed healthy growth in Umbria & other "red" regions. Still, Umbria has ALWAYS been led by left wingers so far - symbolically this matters...
3/... also because left is supposed to do well in regional elections -they are supposed to be rooted & have good connections with various sectors/associations & civil society.
4/ Since 2013 & sudden growth of M5S, three blocks/poles compete nationally: centre-left (led by PD), right (led by League) and M5S. In Umbria, however, centre-left & M5S have created a “pole”: they support one of the two candidates that has a chance of winning: Vincenzo Bianconi
5/ If the right – led by League- can defeat M5S/PD (their candidate is League senator Donatella Tesei), this would very much strengthen their claim that this govt is politically illegitimate & that fresh elections must follow soon.
6/ A victory for the right is now a very plausible scenario. League gained 38,2% on its own in European elections here, & Salvini has invested a month campaigning up & down the region. He & his team are good dedicated campaigners.
7/ If the centre-left/M5S were driven by rational considerations they would resist the idea of immediate elections. But they are not a ‘pole’, of course, hence they will be thinking in terms of what they can gain from each other, too.
8/ Additionally,they're internally divided. PD has just “lost” Renzi & followers, who created yet another centrist entity whose only function is to erode PD’s support & be a vehicle for Renzi’s own ambition. With polls giving him 3,4% Renzi may not want elections right now either
9/ There are those within M5S who will see election as opportunity to get rid of what is now “old guard” & renew party – e.g. by giving high profile leader & Foreign Minister Di Maio a push. Even if party is forced into opposition- which is not a bad place to be for M5S anyway.
10/ If defeat in Umbria sets in motion a series of bad results across Italy, this will divide the governing alliance even further & make Conte’s job impossible (rather than force PD & M5S to create a common front).
11/ Just like much of UK’s opposition, M5S & PD are strategically hopeless & remain obsessed with their own survival, whatever the consequences (in the UK these are somewhat more serious right now, but still the parallels are obvious).
12/ 700,000 people are eligible to vote in Umbria, so vote will not give us a true pic of the situation nationwide. BUT, importantly, it will help the sparring sides to build a narrative – which will influence forthcoming regional elections elsewhere, hence also national politics
13/ More specifically, if the right wins here AND in Emilia-Romagna (election in January, also stronghold of the left until recently), then the momentum may well become unstoppable to hold fresh elections. Salvini knows this & is staking it all in Umbria.
14/ However he packages it, Salvini's aborted attempt to bring down Conte has damaged his credibility among right wing voters & dented his reputation as the successful “Captain”. He now needs to do what @berlusconi successfully engineered vs. Prodi as PM after his defeat of 2006.
@berlusconi 15/ That is putting constant pressure on the weak alliance governing Italy at the moment (in reality, just as legitimate & defensible politically than the previous one) & get a vote asap. The more M5S & PD manage to do, the worst it is for him.
@berlusconi 16/ If the last couple of weeks (characterised by infighting within the govt alliance) are anything to go by, Salvini’s job may not be too hard.
@berlusconi 17/ Clever also of Berlusconi & Meloni (Brothers of Italy) to recognise Salvini’s leadership (for now) & present a united front. If Berlusconi stays on as kingmaker & Meloni ends up as Defence or Interior Minister in next govt...
@berlusconi 18/ They would both have played their cards very well.
Unlike many on the left, they do know where their interests lie. /END/
Unlike many on the left, they do know where their interests lie. /END/
