"Social distancing" is often conflated with total lockdowns, but they're not the same. We could begin restoring jobs while practicing social distancing. That makes it very important to determine if social distancing is more effective than the early models assumed it would be.
That's the single most important thing we need to determine right now by questioning why the models were so far off. We want to correct other faulty assumptions and clean up bad data too, but we REALLY need to know if social distancing is far more effective than anticipated.
Arguments have been made that the curve started flattening before full lockdowns could have had any significant effect. We should be working very hard to establish if that's true, because if it is, we have a path toward safely lifting lockdowns in most areas.
Especially in areas that haven't been hit especially hard by the virus, social distancing practices could be effective enough to make lockdowns unnecessary, both now and during the next pandemic emergency. We need to determine if that's true, as quickly as possible.
The hot spots would have to be treated differently, and that's one of the reasons we need more testing capabilities fast. It's hard to completely isolate a city or county, especially early in a pandemic, but more feasible to say you must test negative to enter or leave.
I don't think we can ever do a full lockdown again, and we shouldn't have to. We need a smarter strategy. Measuring the precise effectiveness of lockdowns vs. social distancing and other safety measures is critical and should be one of our highest priorities.
Again, this is not a binary choice between saving lives and saving money. Our entire health care system is on the verge of suffering immense damage because of the lockdown. Many injuries, illnesses, and deaths would result from the collapse of hospitals and clinics.
If social distancing is highly effective, then normal work and treatment can continue at medical facilities, and there's no reason for people to be nervous about using them. We need to know that, FAST, before we cripple our medical system for years to come. /end
