As we plan the next step, we have to remember there will be a substantial delay between "reopening the economy" and people actually returning to work and resuming commerce. It will probably be about two weeks, the standard waiting period with the coronavirus.
A lot of people will be waiting to see if there's a surge of infections following the "grand reopening." They will wait to go shopping for non-essentials, patronize restaurants, etc. until they feel comfortable no surge is occurring. Many will delay returning to work.
Two weeks is probably about average, with some nervous folks waiting longer and some adventurous types rushing to be first in line when the doors open. The safe bet is that we'll be halfway back to normal, halfway through the month, if we start reopening on May 1 or June 1.
That time lag translates to billions of dollars in lost commerce and costs. It has to be factored into whatever announcements are made by federal and state government. Nobody can snap their fingers and get us 90, 75, or even 60 percent back to normal in a matter of days.
And we won't get anywhere near 90 percent of the way back to normal, even in a month. For one thing, social distancing is going to cut the capacity of businesses like restaurants and theaters in half, for those that reopen at all. That will have a huge effect on costs and income.
We have to begin reopening as soon as possible to account for both the delay in popular acceptance and to accurately assess the long-term damage we have suffered. Some of it may be effectively permanent, with social distancing forcing major changes in how businesses operate.
Some of the businesses most heavily affected by the lockdown are medical. We're suffering permanent damage to a health care system that was already dysfunctional, and made worse by every government intervention. Lives are put directly at risk every day the lockdown continues.
And lives will be at risk in the aftermath, as there will be a delay in how quickly hospitals and clinics can spin back up to almost-normal operations. The timing of reopening orders must account for that. Immense damage has been suffered by vital businesses linked to our health.
There's a psychological health component too. Most people suspect reopening won't be instant. The rest will see it with their own eyes in the first days after we "get back to business." The effect on their morale must be considered. Waiting longer means depression sets in.
We can't treat every part of the country the same. Not every place is New York City. That was always true, but it's especially true now, when we desperately need to begin restoring normalcy to the safer counties and states. Everyone needs to see it can be done, somewhere.
We need to keep social distancing in place, so reopening won't get us to 100% normal anywhere, but we need to start getting back to at least 50% normal somewhere, as soon as we can. Both hope and despair are contagious, despair usually more so. /end
