Thread by @cfishman

US Coronavirus Update, Thursday, April 9, 2020
~ Lethal, even as progress continues

Fatalities First

• Total US covid-19 deaths as of Thu, April 9: 16,672

• Increase in the last 24 hours: 1,904 (+13%)

--> 2nd deadliest day in the US epidemic

--> 79 cv19 deaths an hour

2/ As the data showed Wed, the absolute number of deaths is stubbornly high. People dying this week were infected 7-14 days ago. Infection numbers were still rising fast 1 & 2 weeks ago.

Last 7 days, deaths / day:

Days 1-4: 1,200 deaths or more

Days 5-7: 1,800 deaths or more

3/ We have reached a new deadly plateau: More than one American a minute is dying every minute of every day, going back to Tuesday, 4/7, from the pandemic.

4/ But even at this new level for daily deaths, the percent increase in deaths is flattening.

Daily increase in deaths, rolling 5-day average:

• Thu, Apr 9: 14.8%
• Thu, Apr 2: 22.8%

With a single-day outlier, the rate of increase in deaths has fallen 6 days in a row.

5/ It's good to see how dramatic this is.

On Mar 29, US deaths were doubling in 3 days or less.

Predicted deaths, 4/1: 3,900
Actual deaths, 4/1: 5,116

Predicted deaths, 4/9: 24,000
Actual deaths, 4/9: 16,672

6/ On April 1, US deaths were running 31% ahead of the prediction.

By yesterday, eight days later, US deaths were 31% below the prediction.

That is the result of all the measures taken to suffocate the virus in the two weeks before that.

That's social distancing, working.

7/ As of Thursday, 7,328 Americans who would likely have died in the last 10 days are still alive, because of stay-at-home orders.

Those deaths aren't just delayed a few weeks. That's tens of thousands of people who didn't get sick, and then the 3.6% of the sick who didn't die.

8/ Now, new cases…

• Total confirmed US cases, Thu, April 9: 465,329

• Increase in cases in last 24 hours: 33,491 (+ 8%)

--> Largest 1-day increase in cases in US pandemic

--> Absolute number of new cases rises 4th day in a row

9/ Cases on Thursday were 438 higher than Wednesday, out of 33,000 cases.

We came close to a day when the rate of increase fell enough to also bring down the absolute number of cases.

• Actual rate of case increase, Wednesday: 7.75%
• Rate needed to reduce cases: 7.65%

10/ As has been true for a week, the most important news on new cases Thursday was that the rate of increase kept falling.

Mon: 11.11%
Sun: 9.24%
Mon: 8.96%
Tue: 8.51%
Wed: 8.28%
Thu: 7.75%

11/ We are at the end of the 3rd week of widespread social distancing.

With the exception of 1 day (3/30), the rate of increase in new cases has fallen every day, 14 days in a row.

5-day trailing average, rate of increase:

Thu, Apr 9: 8.5%
Thu, Apr 2: 14.8%
Thu, Mar 26: 27.2%

12/ One week ago, that 14.8% rate of increase in new cases looked really good.

If we had stayed even at that relatively low rate, here's the difference:

Cases April 9, if 14.8% increase: 640,000 cases

Actual cases, April 9: 465,000 cases

What's the point of such a comparison?

13/ Every day of continued social distancing is vital.

Every 1 percentage point we cut off the rate of increase is 5,000 cases a day we don't pile up.

That's why we the stay-at-home and business-closing orders extend at least through April 30.

14/ We started late. But as a country, we have done what it was clear we needed to do — to this point.

And it is working vividly. The evidence is in the numbers.

But we are not done.

15/ One last astonishing comparison this morning. One month ago was March 9. There was a lot of skepticism of communities & companies moving against coronavirus that week (NBA, NCAA).

March 9:
--> 704 US cases
--> 26 US deaths

April 9:
--> 465,329 cases
--> 16,672 deaths

16/ We got where we are today from that seemingly tiny, 'manageable' numbers of cases a month ago.

If we let the restrictions relax now, we won't be unleashing 700 sick people on the country.

We'll be unleashing 500,000. Imagine what that would do, one month from now.

17/ This coronavirus isn't wily or smart.

It's just patient & determined.

We *are* wily & smart. And we also — absolutely — need to be patient & determined.

Reminder: We aren't hurting the economy by protecting the people. We are, ultimately, helping the economy & ourselves. #