Thread by @jburnmurdoch

NEW: Fri 10 April update of coronavirus trajectories

Daily new deaths:
• US & UK still on clear trend of rising daily deaths. Reporting patterns may give occasional dips, but clearly trending up 📈
• India daily death toll accelerating ⚠️

Live charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now cumulative deaths:
• US death toll still ramping up, and likely to become the highest worldwide if not tonight then certainly tomorrow 📈
• Australia still looking promising
• India still steepening ⚠️

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now daily new cases:
• Early signs that new infections in US *may* be peaking
• Austria’s new cases still falling. They plan to ease lockdown next week; will the line bend back up?
• Noway (lockdown) and Sweden (not so much) diverging...

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Cases in cumulative form:
• US may end up off the chart again (above 500,000 cases) by the end of the night
• Turkey is battling one of the world’s most severe outbreaks

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now subnational region daily deaths:
• NY death toll still rising every day
• London the same
• Few places have had daily death tolls still rising this far in; these two are now the two urban epicentres, globally

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Subnational death tolls cumulatively:
• NY likely to have world’s highest subnational death toll within days

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now small multiples of daily deaths in subnational regions:
• We’re now showing all UK countries (Northern Ireland added); England still accelerating much more steeply than the rest
• 15 US states now, several looking steep
• Sicily peaked early: do islands fare better?

Small multiples for daily new deaths in 46 countries:
• Norway locked down while Sweden didn’t; Norway’s daily death toll rising much more slowly than Sweden’s
• Brazil & Turkey tracking China
• India accelerating sharply

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Finally, small multiples for daily cases in 66 countries:
• Early action in Australia & NZ => may have turned the corner early 🇦🇺🇳🇿📉
• Austria & Norway also locked down early => new cases falling
• US lockdowns piecemeal & late => trajectory off the chart & still rising

Things to note:
• Daily covid data is extremely noisy and implies false precision
• This is why we use a rolling average. Watch for general trends. Focus on slopes, not specific daily numbers
• Read Tuesday’s thread for more on this

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1247666977566490626

I’ve also changed data sources.

I’m no longer happy using Worldometers, so tonight I dropped them as even a secondary source and got data directly from official sources in all cases.

This takes longer, but given my concerns over data quality on covid, I think this is important.

Here’s a video where I explain why we’re using log scales, showing absolute numbers instead of per capita, and much more:

https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1244519429825802240

And a chart showing why we're using absolute numbers rather than population-adjusted rates:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1244380095164420101

Please email [e-mail] with feedback, requests & subnational data.

All of these are invaluable, and we incorporate your suggestions and data every day.

We’ll keep getting back to as many people as possible.

Hope you’ve all had ... Good Fridays :-)