Thread by @jburnmurdoch

NEW: Tue 14 April update of coronavirus trajectories

Daily deaths:
• US & UK still trending up, though peak could be in sight
• Successes in dark blue: Australia, Norway, Austria locked down early => gentle slopes
• Japan also promising

Live charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now cumulative deaths:
• US death toll now highest worldwide, still rising fast 📈
• UK curve matching Italy’s but death toll could end higher
• Australia still looks promising

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now daily new cases:
• Signs still point toward new infections in US & UK peaking
• New cases falling in four countries that acted early: New Zealand, Australia, Norway, Australia

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Cases in cumulative form:
• US past 600k confirmed cases
• Turkey still battling a severe outbreak
• Curves flattened early in Austria, Australia, Norway
• Japan steepening as outbreak continues

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now subnational region daily deaths:
• Early signs that NY daily deaths may be peaking, but need to wait and see
• Similar in London; also too early to tell
• Daily deaths still trending up in New Jersey as US east coast outbreak spreads

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Subnational death tolls cumulatively:
• NY has passed 10,000 deaths; likely to have world’s highest subnational death toll tomorrow; still rising faster than any other region at same stage of outbreak
• London steeper than most at same stage

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Small multiples of daily deaths in subnational regions, grouped by country
• Now 22 US states, steepest curves include CT, IL, MD, MA, PA
• Sicily, Sardinia, Balearics, Canaries all low curves: do islands fare better?
• Northern Ireland curve fairly flat

Small multiples for daily new deaths in 53 countries:
• Norway locked down while Sweden didn’t; Norway’s daily death toll rising much more slowly than Sweden’s
• Australia flat-ish so far
• In Europe, Austria & Denmark faring well

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Small multiples for daily cases in 75 countries:
• Early action in Australia & New Zealand may have turned corner early 🇦🇺🇳🇿📉
• Austria & Norway locked down early & new cases falling
• Bangladesh added, steep early trend

Live versions of all charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Things to note:
• Daily covid data is extremely noisy and implies false precision
• This is why we use a rolling average. Watch for general trends. Focus on slopes, not specific daily numbers
• Read Tuesday’s thread for more on this

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1247666977566490626

We’ve also changed our data sourcing recently.

I’m no longer happy using Worldometers, so now sourcing all data directly from official country sources (health ministries etc).

This takes longer, but given my concerns over data quality on covid, I think this is important.

These charts also try to adjust for how different countries report death tolls:
• We strip out non-hospital deaths for France, Belgium & Ireland so we can compare them like-for-like with e.g UK
• Please let me know if your country also includes non-hospital deaths in its total

Here’s a video where I explain why we’re using log scales, showing absolute numbers instead of per capita, and much more:

https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1244519429825802240

And a chart showing why we're using absolute numbers rather than population-adjusted rates:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1249821596199596034

Please email [e-mail] with feedback, requests & subnational data.

All of these are invaluable, and we incorporate your suggestions and data every day.

We’ll keep getting back to as many people as possible.

Have a good night, folks :-)