Lionel Page Profile picture
Apr 11, 2020 3 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Important news for Australia:
The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine estimates that R is already below 1, following the shutdown (right graph).

It is much better than the numbers used by the government's modelling (1.69-1.9).
#COVID19au 1/2
epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/gl… Image
Explainer: R is the effective reproduction number: it is, on average, how many people an infected person will infect. When R is below 1 the epidemic progressively dies down. When it is above 1, it keeps growing.

2/2

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