Important news for Australia:
The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine estimates that R is already below 1, following the shutdown (right graph).
Explainer: R is the effective reproduction number: it is, on average, how many people an infected person will infect. When R is below 1 the epidemic progressively dies down. When it is above 1, it keeps growing.
2/2
We frequently lament the lack of quality information in the media. Yet, as consumers, we often seek not what's most accurate, but what aligns with our views. This shifts the information marketplace into a "marketplace of rationalisations". A🧵
Concerns about the media aren't new. In the 20th century, intellectuals voiced worries about corporate mass media indoctrinating and dumbing down the public in ways that favoured the status quo of the political and economic order.
With the advent of the internet, there was hope for a decentralised public sphere, rich in idea exchange. But reality diverged from this ideal marketplace of ideas. Instead, concerns have risen about people increasingly being influenced by unreliable information.
Why hasn't the Internet worked as a great public space where the best ideas win? Perhaps because it isn't how debates operate. Behind intellectual arguments, people aren't impartial thinkers; they advocate for their team.
A🧵on how coalitional thinking shapes our discussions.
Introductory example. When a Hayek citation criticising men's overconfidence was shared on a libertarian website, it was very poorly received. Ironically, the quote was from Hayek, the free-market economist. Who "said" it greatly influenced how the quote was perceived.
John Tooby--who recently passed away--and his wife Leda Cosmides, founded an influential school of evolutionary psychology. In a 2010 article, they highlighted the importance of our "coalitional psychology," that guides us in navigating ingroup cooperation & outgroup competition.
Why reason fails: Our modern lives are teeming with technology, informed by scientific understanding. But at the same time, irrational beliefs, from superstition to vaccine hesitancy, are still widespread. How is it possible?
👉Reason is likely not the tool we think it is. A 🧵
It is common to think of reason—the ability to form judgments logically—as what sets humans apart from other animals. It’s the way it's presented in the iconic sequence 2001: A Space Odyssey, where a black monolith endows apes with the capacity to build tools... and spaceships.
Paradoxically, while humans have been able to gain mastery over their environment thanks to an understanding of the laws of nature, the public’s faith in science is often lacking, even in rich and technologically advanced countries.
In many countries, petrol prices do something strange: they follow regular cycles unrelated to changes in international oil prices. Economists have recently elucidated how these cycles work, revealing how firms don’t merely compete but also coordinate when setting prices. A🧵
These petrol price cycles have a name: Edgeworth cycles. They have a “sawtooth pattern”: a rapid hike followed by a slow decline. They have been observed in Australia, Austria, Canada, Germany, Norway, and the US.
The economist Francis Y. Edgeworth (1925) suggested that price cycles could arise in situations where competition is imperfect.
You have heard of Adam Smith describing the "invisible hand" of the markets successfully coordinating human activities.
There is however much more to his intellectual contribution. He demonstrated a candid & insightful understanding of social relations & human psychology. A 🧵
Smith's insights on markets
We are so used to markets, that it's easy not to appreciate the novelty of Smith’s takes at a time when economic trade was seen as a kind of zero-sum game with the Mercantilist school of thought: exporters win, importers lose.
A key insight from Smith is that everybody can win from trade, because we can specialise and increase productivity. A large market can generate more specialisation and therefore more productivity gains. He famously used a “pin factory” as an example (impossible in small markets).
It is hard to overstate the importance of social norms. They dictate how we should behave with others in our countless daily social interactions. But what are they? A 🧵on how game theory helps unveil what social norms are and how they work.
What are social norms? In an influential 2001 article, Christine Horne emphasised that the jury was still somewhat out in sociology about the nature of norms, how they work and how they emerge.
Sociology has however produced a set of classical ideas about social norms. Durkheim, the father of the discipline, stressed that they are constraints imposed by society on individuals, and they are beyond individuals’ control. Durkheim (1912):