1/ Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 24
A big day as we crossed 100K deaths worldwide. Brutal & hard to get your mind around – think of a packed @umich stadium (pic).
Thankfully, still stable @ucsfhospitals, w/ 21 cases, 5 on vents. ZSFG similarly stable, 32 pts, 12 on vents.
A big day as we crossed 100K deaths worldwide. Brutal & hard to get your mind around – think of a packed @umich stadium (pic).
Thankfully, still stable @ucsfhospitals, w/ 21 cases, 5 on vents. ZSFG similarly stable, 32 pts, 12 on vents.
2/ Overall SF #s: @SF_DPH publishing more data bit.ly/34hQI9e In all of SF, 88 pts in hospitals (56 wards, 32 ICUs). SF up to 797 cases, bump of 73 (biggest yet, Figs), likely due to outbreak in homeless shelter (see next tweet). Total # of deaths in SF since start=13.
3/ SF's 1st big outbreak: 70 cases (68 members, 2 staff) @ St Vincent De Paul’s homeless shelter bit.ly/3c9LzmC Scary: odds say ~20% will get quite ill; hi-risk population so maybe worse. While spread possible, cont SF lockdown makes that unlikely. Bears very close watch
4/ Given our overall stability, many @ucsf-ers are itching to help harder hit areas. 20 (12 MDs/8 RNs) flying to NYC tmrw for one mth @nyphospital, an awesome act of generosity & bravery bit.ly/34pZ66G To be safe, we’re limiting 1st group to 20; 200 (!) volunteered to go
5/ Another milestone: @IHME_UW model says today is peak of deaths in US (Fig). Sadly, there’ll be many more before we’re done; their projection is 60K deaths by August. Having flattened curve, CA’s projected peak is later, April 15, w/ 1,616 total estimated deaths thru August.
6/ I’ve been doing a ton of press; many questions re what CA has done right. To explain, I prepped graphic below, adding @nirajs23 ’s fascinating idea that 49ers Super Bowl loss (which resulted in no parade at time that virus was in community, unseen) may have saved lives (next->
7/ Re: items seem key to SF's lighter hit: 1st US outbreak in Seattle, cruise ship in SF, & early action by big tech. Then bold steps by elected leaders. Crucial part: people of SF followed the guidance. And, as I said yesterday, some of it was a dearth of bad breaks, just lucky
8/ Fauci announced widespread antibody tests soon, lots of interest. They'll be helpful, tho won’t replace viral PCR tests; they tell 2 different things (are u infected vs were u infected). Raises lots of questions – biggie is whether antibody = immunity (&, if so, for how long)
9/ We have assumed that antibody=immunity (& it’s needed for vaccine to work, so we're pinning hopes on this). Nice @sciam explainer on role of antibodies leans toward some immunity being likely, but not a slam dunk bit.ly/39Z0aQh
10/ Adding to uncertainty: report from S Korea found small # of pts (<100 out of >10,000 cases) had Covid, then neg test, then pos again bloom.bg/34qV7a9 Most experts believe this is reactivation of 1st infection (rather than re-infection) or false neg test. Needs > study
11/ Another new thing: @Apple & @Google are jointly (!) building apps to track folks who crossed your path, facilitating Covid contact tracing (Figs). It’ll be op-in, which should lower creepiness factor. Could be v. useful, but only if folks trust/use app bit.ly/2Xr2LQo
12/ I’ll sign off w/ my fave Covid-era sporting event, courtesy @mrandrewcotter. You’ll recall Mabel & Olive’s must-see eating contest few wks ago bit.ly/3c9ABNT They’re back, now vying for a bone bit.ly/3eeJvv8 Utterly sidesplitting.
Stay safe, back Monday…
Stay safe, back Monday…
I should clarify that there IS a real concern that this could spread to other homeless individuals; another reason that we need to take this outbreak incredibly seriously.
