@laineydoyle Many fair and useful points @laineydoyle and a couple of corrections,
1/. The Gov failed to apply the precautionary principle in deciding whether or not events should go ahead. Also - It made assumptions that COVID’s infection transmission mimicked flu.
1/. The Gov failed to apply the precautionary principle in deciding whether or not events should go ahead. Also - It made assumptions that COVID’s infection transmission mimicked flu.
@laineydoyle 2/. It also made assumptions about big evens based on what is known about flu transmission when COVID appears to have some rather different, more infectious and more dangerous transmission.
3/. There has been a lack of political will and a cavalier attitude to fixing holes.
3/. There has been a lack of political will and a cavalier attitude to fixing holes.
@laineydoyle 4/. Without doubt @laineydoyle deaths in the community should be included in the DH stats & returns to @WHO altho’ they are now being included in the ONS data. But they lag week(s) behind due to multiple sources of data.
5/ They are supposed to included COVID even if no tests
5/ They are supposed to included COVID even if no tests
@laineydoyle @WHO 6/. So if someone has displayed COVID symptoms but was not tested COVID SHOULD appear on the death certificate and be counted in the COVID stats.
Here is a thread & blog from the ONS on the subject.
BUT
Here is a thread & blog from the ONS on the subject.
BUT
@laineydoyle @WHO 7/. I have my doubts whether COVID IS being recorded scrupulously on death certificates and that is another issue.
Also the ONS do not record community deaths as a separate line. Hospital and Community deaths are lumped together.of
Also the ONS do not record community deaths as a separate line. Hospital and Community deaths are lumped together.of
@laineydoyle @WHO 8/. That makes it difficult to monitor the quality of Community death certification. And I wonder whether COVID related deaths are getting recorded as they should for a number of reasons.
For instance on 7/4/20 @ONS did a thread.over 1000 excess deaths in w/e 28 March.
For instance on 7/4/20 @ONS did a thread.over 1000 excess deaths in w/e 28 March.
@laineydoyle @WHO @ONS 9/. So is the number of deaths over and above the 5yr average for that week. And before COVID deaths really rocketed in number.
Yesterday it was reported that a single police officer was called to 15 unexpected deaths in one day. Happening all over.
Yesterday it was reported that a single police officer was called to 15 unexpected deaths in one day. Happening all over.
@laineydoyle @WHO @ONS 10/. So a number of things about the death data should change.
A/. The @DHSCgovuk should include a separate line for Covid Community deaths. Every death matters and it is sending a terrible terrible message that they are omitted.
A/. The @DHSCgovuk should include a separate line for Covid Community deaths. Every death matters and it is sending a terrible terrible message that they are omitted.
@laineydoyle @WHO @ONS @DHSCgovuk 10/ contd
B/ the ONS should have a separate line for hospital and Community deaths partly so the latter can be monitored separately. It is clunky & creates conditions of inaccuracy to have to subtract historical DH deaths from ONS deaths for a week.
B/ the ONS should have a separate line for hospital and Community deaths partly so the latter can be monitored separately. It is clunky & creates conditions of inaccuracy to have to subtract historical DH deaths from ONS deaths for a week.
@laineydoyle @WHO @ONS @DHSCgovuk C/. This should also be done, and regionally, so QA can be done on the certifications.
Eg clusters of care home deaths investigated. Why is one area or GP recording so many fewer COVID deaths than another.
Eg clusters of care home deaths investigated. Why is one area or GP recording so many fewer COVID deaths than another.
@laineydoyle @WHO @ONS @DHSCgovuk C/ contd. Does he or she know that symptoms alone, no testing should result in CV19 on death certificate? Early identification and correction improves the ability to know what is going on where, and what changes are needed to minimise deaths.
@laineydoyle @WHO @ONS @DHSCgovuk C/ contd. Tragically, Too late for those already dead. But not too late to help understanding of past conditions to minimise deaths in the future.
11/. Out of Curiosity what are the deaths per 100k for Dublin. Pop 553k I think. Is that right?
11/. Out of Curiosity what are the deaths per 100k for Dublin. Pop 553k I think. Is that right?
@laineydoyle @WHO @ONS @DHSCgovuk 11/ contd.
We can try and compare that to a City of similar size here, to rule out the consequence of more densely populated living.
But I would say a cavalier attitude plus a giving up in the face of consequences of deep and brutal cuts for a decades was behind U.K. deaths.
We can try and compare that to a City of similar size here, to rule out the consequence of more densely populated living.
But I would say a cavalier attitude plus a giving up in the face of consequences of deep and brutal cuts for a decades was behind U.K. deaths.
@laineydoyle @WHO @ONS @DHSCgovuk 12/. Of course, the long view will be the final decider. How many deaths per 100k by the time there is effective treatments and vaccines.
How many have immunity (if any) now and as lockdowns are lightened will also affect likely spikes and deaths? What has been front loaded?
How many have immunity (if any) now and as lockdowns are lightened will also affect likely spikes and deaths? What has been front loaded?
