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Confirmation via @DHSCgovuk: UK #COVID19 death toll has surpassed 10k, hitting 10,612.
Updated chart of UK trajectory 👇
- UK still hugging Italian line. May overtake it in coming days, indicating comparatively more severe outbreak
- NB weekend figs sometimes an understatement
The UK #COVID19 figs are dismaying.
These are not datapoints but families losing loved ones.
Lesson from other countries: UK trajectory need not have looked like this.
Small piece of good news: a week ago deaths were doubling every three days. Now they're doubling every six days.
Wondering why my #COVID19 charts have that odd logarithmic axis? Why they include China? Why they don't have a population adjusted chart or indeed what that would look like? Answers to those questions and more here: edmundconway.com/2020/04/covid-…
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
UK death toll from #COVID19 now stands at just under 10k, acc to @DHSCgovuk. 9,875.
- UK took precisely the same time (24 days) as Italy did to get from around 100 to around 10,000 deaths.
- Growth rate of deaths still falling. But data sadly points to many more in coming weeks
Clearly there are questions abt whether UK got strategy right.
For now, one sliver of light: avg growth rate of UK deaths has dropped from 23% a week ago to 13% over past week.
Had UK death toll carried on rising as last week, we'd have been hearing abt 20k dead this w/e, not 10k
NB deaths numbers from @DHSCgovuk are incomplete: don't include deaths outside hospitals or denote when deaths happen.
The true death numbers in the past 24 hours are almost certainly higher than today's figs.
How much? You get a sense of the gaps from the lines on this chart:
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
THREAD: The coming months will be dismal and depressing. But if we pull together we also have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to fix the broken institutions that have contributed, one way or another, to the mess we're in. That means a new Bretton Woods thetimes.co.uk/article/182108…
NB Bretton Woods was only one of a series of conferences and agreements which formed the international institutions we still have today: the IMF, World Bank, UN, WHO, WTO (or rather its precursor GATT). And those institutions are no longer fit for purpose
#COVID19 has shown how toothless the WHO is. It should have had power to step in earlier & prevent pandemic. It should be the world’s coordinator for allocation of spare medical resources (eg ventilators/doctors). Instead countries (China/Taiwan) are giving aid for political gain
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
Following @DHSCgovuk update of 2,921 #COVID19 deaths in UK, here's how the UK trajectory looks vs other countries today
- Good news: slight fall in UK growth rate (24% vs 31.5% previous day)
- Bad news: UK line nonetheless steeper than Italy & France at similar stage in outbreak
These lines represent thousands of families losing loved ones.
And the worry for us in the UK is that by this stage in their outbreaks Italy, France and to some extent Spain had managed to flatten their curves.
UK's line not flattening. Deaths still doubling every three days.
Reminder that for all the praise being heaped on Germany for its #COVID19 testing regime, deaths there are still rising in line with the rest of Europe.
Same in Netherlands.
Same in Sweden.
Same pretty much everywhere but S Korea & Japan
Question marks over the Chinese data…
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