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THREAD: The guardians of the world economy will come together this week to survey a global picture that’s been turned on its head in the space of a few months trib.al/btO8YpD
The IMF’s spring meeting – held virtually as a result of the coronavirus pandemic – will give officials a chance to update their outlook to reflect the new reality of shuttered economies, collapsing trade and mounting unemployment trib.al/btO8YpD
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has already said she sees the world economy suffering its worst recession since the Great Depression trib.al/btO8YpD
“Investors are likely to focus on the latest forecasts from the IMF for the global economy,” say @JMurray804 & @economistniraj. “They will show a dramatic downward revision. We fear even this latest round of revisions may indicate the depth of recession is too optimistic”
The shutdown’s economic ripples are going to appear in a wider variety of U.S. data, led by what’s forecast to be the biggest drop in retail sales in at least 3 decades, plus one of the largest post-WWII declines in factory production. Jobless claims may be in the millions again
Bank of Canada policy makers meet Wednesday to decide on rates and present new quarterly forecasts. It may announce another series of measures to provide support to the nation’s reeling economy. These may include plans to acquire more long-term debt from regional governments
Indonesia’s central bank is set to take further action to cushion the blow from the coronavirus, with economists expecting another interest rate reduction on Tuesday trib.al/btO8YpD
The big show will come at the end of the week when China reports its GDP for 1Q, with an historic contraction expected by economists. March data on retail sales, industrial production, joblessness and investment will be scrutinized for any signs China is on the path to recovery
Turkey on Wednesday will announce its budget balance for March, when the government gradually began to restrict mobility in response to the coronavirus pandemic. The measures slowed the economy considerably and will likely result in lower tax collection and a wider deficit
Data on Argentina’s March inflation out Wednesday will be its first major economic report reflecting the nationwide lockdown imposed amid the pandemic. The government has already reported that supermarkets aren’t abiding by its freeze on prices trib.al/btO8YpD
Read @_DavidGoodman’s full preview of what is coming up in the world economy: trib.al/btO8YpD
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