THREAD: China’s Hubei province is now in the 3rd week of a shutdown triggered by the virus that has killed hundreds of people – and halted an industrial powerhouse the size of Sweden trib.al/NTHh9AZ 
Among China’s earliest industrial centers, Hubei has grown faster than the national average for years. Shuttering this swathe of China’s output poses questions for the government’s economic targets, and the international companies reliant on the province’s output
Hubei is home to a wide range of industries, as well as having a large education sector trib.al/NTHh9AZ
“Hubei is not a major exporter. $34 billion in overseas sales in 2018 accounted for just 1.4% of China’s total. That limits the global spillovers. In certain industries, though, Hubei punches above its weight,” says Bloomberg Economics’ Qian Wan trib.al/NTHh9AZ
Hubei’s prominent auto sector poses one of the biggest risks at home and abroad, as it’s vital for the broader economy and has an extensive supply chain. The provincial capital Wuhan is one of the top car-industry hubs in China trib.al/NTHh9AZ
Looking to the post-crisis recovery, industry in Hubei was healthier than peers before the disaster started, potentially easing debt-repayment pressures trib.al/NTHh9AZ
More than 7 million people were employed at private Hubei firms in 2017, with wholesale and retail sales the biggest sector. With many of those businesses closed for the foreseeable future, the outlook for both firms and workers is bleak trib.al/NTHh9AZ
Hubei’s fiscal outlook this year isn’t helping prospects. The augmented fiscal revenue of Hubei’s government – including taxation and non-tax income such as land sales – was forecast to grow by just 2.3% in 2020 from last year, according to Bloomberg calculations
On top of that, about 127 billion yuan of debt borrowed by the Hubei government and quasi-government financing vehicles is due to be repaid in 2020 trib.al/NTHh9AZ
These fiscal constraints and the cost of medical care for tens of thousands of sick people will mean there’s less money, at least locally, to pay for stimulus and support for firms and companies when the epidemic ends trib.al/NTHh9AZ
