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A lot of people claimed the U.S. was a tottering, decadent pushover before WW2...
Reading about the FDR administration, and watching the Trump administration in action during this crisis, I'm wondering if leadership at critical moments really does determine the fates of nations.
We very badly need a new FDR, and we are not getting one til at least 2025.

Fuck.
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We need #TestAndTrace 🐇
@Noahpinion
High-tech pandemic masks are cool. BUT, I think the first thing we need is just an infinitely reusable easily washable clear mask with air filters that can reliably block fully airborne pathogens up to and including measles.
Airborne viruses are modern societies' one real vulnerability to pandemics, given our ability to beat water-, sex-, and animal-based vectors.

Future bioweapons and basement CRISPR bioterrorists will all try to make airborne viruses, unless everyone has a Pandemic Mask.
If everyone has a Pandemic Mask in their home and knows how to use it, the threat of airborne viruses is mostly neutralized. Some terrorist releases a weaponized coronavirus, we all put our masks on for a few weeks and the threat is over.
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We need #TestAndTrace 🐇
@Noahpinion
This is another way of visualizing the fact that lockdowns have made coronavirus outbreaks go linear. It remains to be seen whether they can make the outbreak actually decline in the U.S. (and UK).
R > 1 means a lot of people die but we get herd immunity

R < 1 means we suppress the outbreak and can start #TestAndTrace

R = 1 means a lot of people die, but somewhat fewer than if R>1, and we stay in lockdown indefinitely

R = 1 is not a good outcome.
R > 1 --> "let's all just get the virus"

R < 1 --> "crush the curve"

R = 1 --> "flatten the curve"

I feel like R=1 is a bad enough outcome that the early rhetoric about "flattening the curve" did some real damage to the public's ideas about how to respond to this epidemic.
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We need #TestAndTrace 🐇
@Noahpinion
1/A quick thread about the medium-term future of our coronavirus response (i.e. between lockdown and treatment/vaccine).

Some have suggested we use variolation (i.e. try to intentionally infect each person with a mild dose of coronavirus) as a way to get herd immunity...
2/This is probably a bad idea when facing a novel virus like this one. @tylercowen explains why:
marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…
3/But it IS possible that a small exposure to coronavirus produces mild or even asymptomatic cases in many people -- and then confers immunity afterwards.

We don't know yet, but it's possible.

newyorker.com/magazine/2020/…
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