Thread by @DrCOmole

NEED FOR BESPOKE RESPONSE TO COVID-19 IN NIGERIA

Different countries have employed different ways to combat this pandemic with successes despite variation in tools employed. Nigeria cannot afford to just copy other countries. A distinctive local solution must be found.

Our security agencies cannot police the chaos that a prolonged national total lockdown will create. We already see signs of that in Lagos. Hunger & destitution can also kill more people than the virus itself.
So what are some of the ways other nations have managed this pandemic.

Examples are:

SOUTH KOREA - No Lockdown but aggressive tracing, testing and wide use of face masks. Virus now coming under control and impact on economy minimised.

JAPAN - Partial lockdown in Evenings and Weekends only. Virus death very low and infections coming down.

SINGAPORE - Partial lockdown with 12 exceptional reasons to leave home approved. Infections now low but a secondary spike is possible.

CHINA - Total Lockdown lifted with a few exceptions. Death from the virus now minimal after previous high.

UK - Total National lockdown ongoing. Devastating effect on the economy. The virus is still not under control; but the future is looking less frightful.

There are a variety of other adaptations by different nations as well. So there is no One size Fits All response.

Nigeria should not just cut and paste an option. Govt should find what is bespoke to us that can work but not destroy lives, social order & the economy. But a prolonged total lockdown is unsustainable.

I will suggest Nigeria try a combination of the following:

1. Partial lockdown in Evenings and Weekends. Companies should be allowed to function during daytime but take steps to observe social distancing. This will be easier to enforce and not strain the security agencies as total lockdown would.

2. The Govt should ramp up testing across the nation. There need to be a ten fold increase in testing as a minimum in my view.
3. Contact tracing should be ramped you with priority given to those who have been around positive cases.

4. Face mask should be widely distributed with companies encouraged to make it available to all their staff and workers.

5. Collaboration with other nations on Treatment options and vaccinations.

If there are basis to do otherwise, Govt should be open with us about it.

Strategies are always adjustable as we proceed. Covid-19 responses by nations are based on modelling of scenarios. How many projected infections & deaths etc. With its course of action; USA have said up to 200k people will still die but up to 3million will die if they don’t act.

In the UK, the govt modelling is that 20k people will die with total lockdown but up to 500k will die if nothing is done. This is not an exact science but an attempt to weigh options & inform the public.

What is the modelling in Nigeria saying? Has it even been done yet?

What are the projected numbers of infections and deaths in Nigeria with the actions being taken? The Govt need to step up its detailed analysis and increase openness to gain the support of Nigerians for whatever action it decides. We know things are difficult for all Govts.

There is no pain-free option. But the Govt need to explain what the pains will be, its impact and consequences. LAGOS State Govt has been good in its response to this. But a national strategy is needed as a few of the Governors cannot be trusted to take the bold steps needed.

The virus does not respect state boundaries. This is not a time to just blame FG either. There are lots of challenges involved with this novel virus. But the Govt need to do more & fast too. They need to manage expectations. I wish them well as we all win if they get this right.

Finally, a mass enlightenment campaign is needed as many still doubt d existence of this virus especially in d rural areas. The Govt need to get credible Nigerians to front this campaign as d trust-deficit with Govt may affect believability of this campaign if done in usual ways.

Working hours should be reduced to allow workers get home before curfew starts in the evenings. Those on daily income will have a few hours to earn, thus reducing hunger as Govt palliatives cannot reach everyone. Partial lockdown can then be reviewed every 2weeks for assessment.