Thread by @BryanAlexander

A few thoughts about fall enrollment.

#thread

I'm not sure how far down total enrollment will go.
There are lots of pressures:
-fear of reinfection for f2f classes
-suspicion of online class quality
-circulation of bad stories

It'll be uneven.
Community colleges, vo tech, some state schools could see an influx.

Overall, though?
I would not be surprised to see a total enrollment drop of 10-20%.

We should expect unevenness by departments, both in terms of students taking classes/majoring and by institutional support.
Anything addressing #coronavirus should grow - i.e., all medical and allied health related fields. Possibly business and econ (to rebuilt economy).

Some non-medical STEM fields could grow even further:
-engineering, if we get big infrastructure projects
-computer science, because that part of the economy is thriving

Social sciences: again, econ/business could grow even further.
Psych as well, given the pandemic's massive mental health hit.

Anthro? Not so much.

Arts and humanities?
It depends.
In the world, the arts and humanities are going very well. We are consuming and making all kind of arts, crafts, stories, etc.
But will academic humanities successfully draw on that interest?

Meanwhile, I can see non-campus stakeholders pressuring departments to follow those patterns.
Trustees, state governments, funders, donors: we need pandemic academics!

But will students go?

Again, there are many reasons not to take classes this fall.

There is plenty to do that isn't higher ed.

Think of devoting time to caring for family, friends, community.
Especially as the pandemic continues to gnaw through our population and the 2020 election shambles along.

Think as well of how much informal and productive learning we can do.
Take a year off - work - but also learn Chinese. Write that novel. Build that invention in the garage.

Informal learning could supplant formal.

Taking a semester or year off - my wife came up with a euphonious term:
"coronagap."

That's all demand side.

What about academic supply?

Can colleges and universities offer their full fall curriculum?

I'm hearing stories of classes getting canceled. Of mainstream, major-important classes just not being offered.

Why?

How many professors will refuse to teach an online class for the full fall term?

Obviously I don't mean adjuncts here.

How many administrators are gunshy about offering online classes, given first reports from this semester?

Will they move to triage offering fall classes that are
-taught by people who know what they're doing
-are critical to the fields I mentioned earlier?

Then just how many classes can a campus afford to offer, once the financial stresses I've previously described hit?

We could see fewer classes with more students in each one. Call it the austerity semester.

How many older, tenured profs who dislike online teaching will take early retirements gladly offered by desperate administrations?

That's it for now. Back to meetings.

If you're all good I'll share some more cat photos to cheer you up.

/thread