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@RobRedmile We can get either, both or neither. Right now, lots of countries are locking down, ignoring long-run strategy

This could mean we end up with long lock-down, destroying economy, but then can't endure more lockdowns next fall etc, leading to both failed economy and many dead
@RobRedmile we could also do Sweden, which is moderate (but not no) cost, and likely imagine keeping this up for a long run, with moderate deaths
@RobRedmile (finally, notice that the strong lock-down as we saw in Italy and other places was probably necessary at the time, even if it might have been better to go to 'Sweden' precautions earlier)
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Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
@JamesGDyke @past_is_future These are all great considerations, and we do discuss some of these as sensitivity

But given the incredible difference between the costs and benefits, it will be almost impossible to make the lockdown a good use of resources
@JamesGDyke @past_is_future I am surprised you would say "Your job is to show innaction & immediate deaths is "cheaper" than action"

That just wrong. We're trying to find what works best

I would encourage you to try to show other parameter choices that would show a lockdown is a great idea for Malawi
@JamesGDyke @past_is_future That would help the conversation forward, and also help Malawi (and Ghana and other countries)

And it would also be helpful to hear your reply to why it wouldn't be better first to help the people with HIV, where we can avoid more deaths at 4,000th the cost
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Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
Even moderate lockdowns likely a terrible idea for poorer nations

We did a study with Malawi's National Planning Commission:

Lockdown avoids about 7,000 deaths but costs $12 billion

$3 million can avoid more deaths in Malawi (4,000 times cheaper)

npc.mw/docs/NPC%20COV…
Imperial College finds that moderate social distancing reduces COVID death by about 12,000. We also expect less traffic deaths and less additional HIV death. Lockdown will also cause more malnutrition, tuberculosis and malaria, leading to a net benefit of 6,700 avoided deaths
The costs are: 1) shut down schools which leads to long-term lower child productivity. Since each extra school year increases wages by 12%, school lockdown cost is $5.2 billion (almost one year GDP) — the present value of income loss for 6 million children over the next
50 years
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Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
World Economic Forum released its risk assessment for the coming 1.5 years:

All about recession & unemployment, economics and of course a second wave of corona

www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_COVID…
Here is the full list of concerns for the next 1.5 years
No large environmental concerns — swamped by economic and others

Interestingly, World Economic Forum had over the past 15 years increasingly come to see the environment as the riskiest issue (here just months earlier)

www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Globa…
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