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Daily US numbers via @COVID19Tracking:

Newly-reported deaths:
Today: 2,299
Yesterday: 1,450
One week ago (4/7): 1,926

Newly-reported cases:
T: 26K
Y: 25K
4/7: 30K

Newly-reported tests:
T: 147K
Y: 129K
4/7: 148K

Share of tests positive:
T: 18%
Y: 19%
4/7: 21%
I was worried about this report, because of likely Easter weekend backlogs in reporting; the last two Tuesdays have been quite bad. Indeed, the deaths number is a new daily high—but to be honest also about where you might have expected it to be given those issues.
The number of new cases is down by around 15% from last Tuesday, however, with a similar number of tests conducted as last Tuesday. That's rather good* and *isn't* driven solely by New York, for what it's worth.

* Though, we really need to be increasing testing.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It really is under-appreciated how different the COVID-19 trajectories look in different states.

Here's a quick THREAD with another simple way to summarize the data.

Take a 7-day average of a state's newly-reported cases. Where does it compare to a state's peak?
Note: this is not ideal, because it doesn't account for changes in a state's volume of testing. But since testing has been quite stagnant in most states—not a good thing, BTW!—that probably matters less than usual. Where testing is a big factor, I will note that.
While you might look at the national data and think things are going all right, 15 states + DC are *currently* at their peaks.

These are:
AR
AZ
CA &
DC
DE
IA
IL
IN
MN
MS
ND
NE
NH
OH
RI *
VA

& testing data is murky in CA
* increased testing volume likely a factor in RI
Read 9 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Here are states with big recent increases, as measured by new cases recorded in the previous 7 days as compared to the 7 days prior:

ND +191%
OH +157%
IA +105%
NE +83%
NH +54%
DE +40%
AR +40%
MN +39%
MS +39%
CA* +33%

* A bit misleading—CA level after accounting for test volume.
The list of *declining* states is harder because some states on the list haven't been great about reporting test volume. But some places that semi-robustly seem to be doing better include NY, VT, AK, HI, MI, MT. Probably LA too but their data on negative tests has been erratic.
Generally the states doing better either:

1) are quite isolated (e.g. HI)
2) had very bad outbreaks already (e.g. MI), or
3) are in the Deep South, which may (?) reflect hotter weather

If a state doesn't fall into one of those categories it may not be making much progress.
Read 5 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It seems like in wealthy Western countries with bad outbreaks of COVID-19, total excess mortality is about 1.5x higher than confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Quick thread on how I think about this.

nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Does that mean you can just multiply confirmed COVID-19 deaths by 1.5 to get the "real" death count? Well, in some cases, it might not be a terrible approach. But you'd have to be careful.
For instance, NYC *is* trying to count *probable* COVID-19 deaths, and their total (confirmed + probable) death count is about 1.5x as high as their confirmed count. www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid…
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