Thread by @MarkkuPeltonen

Use of care and mortality due to corona in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland and Estonia; data from yesterday 15.4. Read the whole thread. (English)

Fig 1. Number of persons in intensive care per day. Measures the burden on intensive care capacity. 1/x

Fig 2. Number of persons in hospital care per day. One person can be counted for several days. Measures the burden on hospital capacity. 2/x

Fig 3. Mortality per million population. 3/x

Fig 4. Mortality per million population on log-scale, by days since 2/million deaths in the country. Same data as fig 3, but y-axis helps to understand rate of change, and time-scale unified. 4/x

Fig 5. Absolute number of deaths by days since 10th death in the country.
(Attempts to get same starting point/phase of the epidemic for all countries). 5/x

Geographical differences within Finland; might be of interest to other countries to understand the spread&trend between the capital area (Helsinki) vs rest.
Fig 6. Nr of persons in intensive care/day by the five “specialised medical care regions”: 6/x

Fig 7. Number of persons in hospital care per day by the five “specialised medical care regions”: 7/x

Bonus figure for some perspective and to remind that one can’t draw too strong conclusions from these figures. Fig 4 with some selected European countries added.

One can’t explain the diffs between Sweden, Belgium, Netherlands and Denmark by their actions. 8/x

Just one quick clarification; my numbers in Fig 1 are “number of patients treated at ICU today”.

The “new unique ICU patients/day” still seems stable quite some time now in Sweden, see (the figure “Nya unika coronapatienter på IVA i Sverige”): 9/x

svt.se/datajournalist…

The reason I’m not using the “new unique ICU patients/day” is that it is not available for other countries besides Sweden. It would be a better measure to monitor changes, but for comparability I’m forced to use the “number treated today”. 10/x

There could be many explanations for country differences: definition of corona deaths; how the disease started to spread in populations (undetected cases); case-mix; distributions of demographics/comorbidities etc. 11/11

Ps fun note. I wasn’t aware of the strong “nordic identity” in Estonia. I made an error calling Estonia “a nordic country”; I was corrected by fellow nordics (friendly but firmly; thanks!).

Estonian friends felt my pain & comforted me with this comic:
upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/comm…