This op-ed by Harald Schmidt @PennMEHP is a hugely valuable contribution to the #bioethics debate over ventilator allocation, & would have applications to other scarce resources as well. Some thoughts /1
Modifying SOFA score w/"weights" based on race would be struck down in federal court (& certainly by this SCOTUS) under #ParentsInvolved precedent scholar.google.com/scholar_case?c…. Not endorsing that precedent, but crucial to recognize it. Area Deprivation Index is better approach /2
Rather than using Area Deprivation Index "weights" to adjust SOFA scores, it would be better to use the Area Deprivation Index as a tiebreaker within each SOFA-score group ("red" to "green"). Would likely save more lives of disadvantaged patients /3
And whether a patient's health resulted from “factors beyond their control” is a misguided road to go down, politically & in making medical decisions. We should try not to exacerbate disparity as we work to save lives, not attempt to compensate those we perceive to be unlucky /4
I agree w/Harald that Rosa is subject to factors beyond her control. But many people--especially people not on Twitter--won't. In rejecting a focus on bad fortune, I am indebted to Elizabeth Anderson's pathbreaking "What is the Point of Equality" jstor.org/stable/10.1086… /5
Harald says it'd be hard to explain that "Rosa has to be moved off a ventilator, so that John can be admitted." Correct. But would also be hard to explain that John must be moved off for Rosa. Ventilator re-allocation is the wrong case for testing our judgments about fairness /6
Last, I agree that incorporating priority to the least advantaged alongside saving more lives is justified. Ideally, the 2 coexist, saving more lives & more disadvantaged lives. But saving more lives shouldn't be jettisoned for random selection in an effort to achieve equality /7
Even though saving more lives benefits from supplementation w/priority to the least advantaged, random selection and 1st-come, 1st-served are the wrong principles for allocating ventilators. On this, not just bioethicists but the public agree. jopm.jmir.org/2020/1/e18272/… /fin
Why not use vaccines to prevent milder cases? This is value judgment city ⬇️
I think we should protect people worldwide from severe disease first, but since that wasn’t ACIP’s reason, this insistence seems confusing. Don’t we vaccinate against varicella & flu, even if mild?
2/4
This reasoning is bad⬇️
Letting people in high risk groups *opt* to receive a booster need not mean that “everyone in those groups needs a booster today”
Booster access should not be based on speculation about how boosters affect people’s perceptions of 2 shot vaccination!
This "simple rule" = locking in the inequity of initial vaccine distribution.
Boosters should be based on risk of severe outcomes if infected after vaccination, not based on how many months ago you were vaccinated--especially given that they admit 8 months is guesswork.
Based on this approach, we are going to put dedicated Jan 2020 vaccine-hunters & a bunch of random hospital employees who were conveniently near our early distribution sites before higher-risk populations who had to overcome hesitancy, access barriers, & unfair eligibility rules
Boosters for non-immunocompromised, fully vaccinated people do not have anywhere near the same individual or population benefit as first or second doses, and the eligibility rules and public health recommendations for them should not be in any way the same
I’ve been critical of booster moratoria as overbroad. There are people at documented high risk here who may benefit greatly from a 3rd dose.
But this throw-the-door-open approach willfully ignores tradeoffs & global scarcity, & rests on scant evidence. apnews.com/article/health…
And the idea we need to give Pfizer recipients 3x Pfizer confuses following the manufacturer with following the science.
If we’re going to do this, at least use fractional-dosing or mix&match boosters so we can use supply to save more lives. Not 150M mRNA vaccines for tiny gains
Instead I’d bet we throw out boatloads of J&J and “old” mRNA vaccines before Sept (just as we did when they could’ve helped abroad or people who actually need 3rd doses), using “too complicated” as an excuse, then vaccinate many 2x vaccinated low risk people with fresh supply.
Dr. Plescia @ASTHO says "particularly if it's been distributed to local communities, pulling it all back is kind of asking for some error or problem.”
Are errors possible? Could something go wrong? Yes
But what’s worse—risk of error, or risk of delayed/no vaccine access?
2/5
Avoiding blame-generating “error” vs. saving lives may also explain FDA’s slow-walking of pediatric approvals over objections from @AmerAcadPeds. Harm from denied access is no less harmful—and likely far larger—than harm from error. Others discuss too thehastingscenter.org/the-f-d-a-and-…
3/5
My other concern about some framing (in reporting/Twitter, not the slides) is that it may fuel the following misinterpretation: "a vaccinated/vaccinated person encounter is as likely to transmit Covid as an unvaccinated/unvaccinated one"
That isn't what the slides/data say!
2/5
Even if we assume breakthroughs are just as likely to produce an infectious dose as an unvaccinated person's infection (stronger than CDC's claim):
- vaccines make people much less likely to *be* infectious
- vaccines reduce susceptibility to an otherwise infectious dose
3/5
"there is a higher risk among older age groups for hospitalization and death relative to younger people, regardless of vaccination status"
- but surely what should matter is whether vaccination reduces absolute risk for one or both groups, not risk relative to one another?
2/
"there are 35,000 symptomatic infections per week among 162 million vaccinated Americans"
- not sure how to think about this. Seems a lot lower when you think of it as 3.5/wk out of every 162,000.
- what should we expect given a very effective vaccine but high exposure?
3/