The point of the lockdown is to buy us time; to slow the rate of cases (and deaths) and to protect the NHS. It (he says cautiously) appears to be working. The idea that it is 'too early' to think about what comes next is preposterous. 1/9
We know that, absent physical distancing, the virus will spread at an alarming rate. The great hope is that treatments, and/or an effective vaccine will emerge, perhaps within 12-18 months (if sooner, then great). 2/
We also know that remaining in lockdown for 12-18 months is, for economic, social and human reasons, impossible. 3/
Lockdown has bought us the time to think about what to do next. The key question is this: how do we lift the lockdown, while not being overwhelmed by wave upon wave of the virus? 4/
There is a *big* debate to be had. What level of cases (and deaths) can we tolerate? What measures are most effective in slowing the spread of the virus? Which sectors/regions should be prioritised, and on what basis? etc etc 5/
As we learn more about the virus, and the experience in other countries, there is no doubt that thinking will evolve. We are likely to get more data on (eg) masks and school closures. We should of course adjust our plans in the light of that data. 6/
The Govt's stance is that it is 'too early' to think about these measures. I would argue instead that we should have been (and hopefully were) thinking about them before lockdown, and that we should, by now, have a detailed plan. 7/
Many of the measures we may need to take, involve a considerable amount of planning. We might rely on testing - if so, where are the tests? We might rely on tracing - if so, how will that work? We might rely on masks, etc etc. 8/
In short, we need to be ready to implement an exit strategy whenever the time is judged to be right to lift the strict lockdown. It will be difficult both logistically, and politically. And the planning, and the debate, needs to be happening now. 9/9
