I don't know why it took me so long... but, thanks to #Newsnight, I think I've finally worked out why the Govt is saying nothing about its exit strategy.
TL;DR It knows what it has to do, but... also knows that it isn't (yet) able to do it. THREAD. 1/11
TL;DR It knows what it has to do, but... also knows that it isn't (yet) able to do it. THREAD. 1/11
The exit strategy depends on 2 things. First, the number of hospital admissions (and new cases) has to start falling. With a lockdown in place, and well observed, that will happen. A decision has to be made about what the *right* number is... but we *will* get there. 2/11
Second, measures need to be in place, after lockdown is (no doubt only partially) lifted, so as to ensure that the infection rate does not begin to rise (too fast). With no such measures, the inexorable result of lifting the lockdown will be an increase in cases. 3/11
How to achieve this? It is a huge challenge, which Governments the world over are grappling with. Expert opinion, and the WHO, pretty much agree that the key lies in testing (antigen and antibody) and tracing. 4/11
And... the Govt knows that (for now at least) *it does not have the capacity to do the necessary testing and tracing*. It appears to be struggling to meet its end April target of 100,000 tests/day (currently less than 20,000). 5/11
There does not (yet) seem to be an antibody test which works sufficiently well. There are many obvious problems with the suggested tracing app. Millions of tests/day would be needed. It is not looking good. 6/11
The Govt knows, that if it (partially) lifts the lockdown without the necessary measures in place to slow the spread, it doesn't just risk a second wave, it invites one. A 'staged' or 'gradual' approach is nowhere near enough (see March). 7/11
So... what does it do? It says - implausibly - that it does not want to dilute its message that we need to stay home, protect the NHS and save lives. I don't see the French abandoning their lockdown now, just because Macron mentioned 11 May yesterday. 8/11
It also draws attention (rightly) to that fact that the curve has not yet flattened enough; thereby insinuating that the 'blame' for the continuing lockdown lies with the slow rate at which social distancing is bearing fruit (ie it lies with us). 9/11
It is, surely, important to try to shed more light on its efforts, and its failings. The Govt should explain what preparations it has made, and is making, to ensure that lockdown can be ended safely. 10/11
The pressure to lift the lockdown is growing. Case rates will start to fall. But unless the Govt has both the capacity to test/trace at huge scale, and also a detailed plan for how that will work, there can be no exit strategy. 11/11
