Various different noises coming out of government on extending Brexit transition, I don't know whether its an outright no or no for now, a more interesting question may be why is government making Brexit as important as tackling coronavirus in priorities? Some thoughts...
1/ of various possibilities that are not mutually exclusive, any form of cooperation in Europe is anathema to this government. This was the policy direction before coronavirus. Government friendly think-tanks are actually proposing we start a trade war with the EU.
2/ Actively ruling out a transition extension is designed as a trap for Keir Starmer, already associated as a remainer by many, and if Labour demands it they can be painted as remoaners still not accepting the referendum result.
3/ The only way the UK can get through a trade deal with the US is in a crisis situation with no EU deal and coronavirus, with China also blamed who else can be our friend. Sits uneasily with the food security elements of the crisis however...
4/ The government genuinely believes we get the better deal from the EU by saying December and no more. That it is the EU that needs a deal and not us. Incidentally many in the EU will believe the opposite, that they shouldn't ask as the UK will be forced to fold...
5/ Perhaps many in government think the economic damage of Brexit can be hidden by the coronavirus impact. Or at least obscured. We won't notice Nissan leaving so much or something like that. I'm not clear though that gov thinks there will be an economic hit...
6/ The idea that no decision can or will be made on transition extension until June, that the UK needs to be seen to try everything else first. Not clear why they should think this, but that has been suggested by more than a few people.
7/ The government hopes to sign a new deal but which actually extends the transition period thus showing great progress but still limited economic hit. Problem being that really does give the EU the dominant negotiating power.
8/ The government believes they will lose votes if they physically pay the EU any more money for anything. That will be awful lot of EU programmes that we will definitely be opting out of (also consistent with actions to date).
9/ final one, that the government believes that we will need to make numerous changes to regulations after coronavirus, and therefore have to be out of the transition period. Possibly without knowing which actual regulations this will be.
So which of these is the government's motivation for non-extension of transition? I think mostly 1 and 2, this is a government actively hostile to any cooperation with the EU, and its a great trap for Labour. Elements of the others perhaps, but mostly this.
As I've said before, huge decision though on Brexit transition. Putting Brexit before coronavirus will allow the government to be more easily blamed for what comes afterwards. But others will be horrified by delay. We shall see... /end
