Thread time. You should read Maajid's thread anyway because I think it's quite interesting and shows that people outside defence Twitter are thinking on the subject, but I want to dive deeper into this specific statement about "preparing for war". 1/
First, caveat emptor, let's be clear that you can discuss the rationale behind a nations actions without agreeing with or endorsing their strategy and methods. This shouldn't need stating, but hey, it's Twitter. /2
China might be preparing for war, but it's unlikely to be offensive in nature, at least in the sense of circa 1930s Japan. The Chinese Belt and Road initiative is a solution to an unfortunate problem of Chinese geography. /3
While the ports get a lot of attention because of their position around the Indian Ocean and their potential as docking bases for military ships, these are primarily just access points to connect China via rail and road without having to go through the South China Sea. /4
China is vulnerable to a naval blockade because of how limited many of the entry points to the SCS are from the west (not the metaphorical west, the literal west). The only other route that doesn't involve going 3/4 of the way around the world involves snaking through... /5
... the various island chains owned by Indonesia, or going either past or around Australia. This makes the Chinese supply chains to and from the west incredibly vulnerable to interdiction. The choices are 1) risk passing through choke points or 2) take a long, winding route /6
Neither of these is a good option, hence the need to find alternative ports with rail connections into China that could bypass some of these more vulnerable passages. This is almost literally a re-birth of the old Burma road, but on a much grander scale. /7
So why is China so worried? Three letters; U. S. A.
Virtually all current US strategic thinking, planning and procurement is built around a potential war with China. It's one of those self-fulfilling cycles where the more the US focuses on China, the more China worries. /8
Virtually all current US strategic thinking, planning and procurement is built around a potential war with China. It's one of those self-fulfilling cycles where the more the US focuses on China, the more China worries. /8
And the more China worries, the more it focuses on a potential attack by the US. This is the Cold War all over again in essence, but with newer "grey zone" (UGH 🙄) capabilities like cyber added into the mix, along with a more advanced understanding of economic war. /9
While we're talking Cold War, let's be clear the USSR didn't create the Warsaw Pact to invade Europe (though they had a contingency for that). They set up the Warsaw Pact as a buffer, to protect them from the possibility of The Great Patriotic War Part 2: Electric Boogaloo /10
This is what China is doing. It needs resources for its massive economy. LOTS of them. They need to import a lot of them. Thus it needs to secure these resources against what it sees as a hostile USA. So it is preparing for war, but not the war you might think. /11
It can acquire all the resources it needs peacefully. It does not need to invade anyone to get them. Unless of course you happen to be an island in the SCS with lots of gas and oil under your exclusive economic zone. Or you're Taiwan. /12
So in summary, I wouldn't worry too much about China planning some grand strategic offensive through the Pacific. It would be unsustainable and massively counter-productive to their aims. And the US is not going to pull the trigger first either. /13
At worst, we'll probably get the strategic equivalent of a skirmish at some point. Either that or the US will end up committing itself to another decade long counter-insurgency against Chinese backed proxies. We'll see. /end
P.S. This is also a good thread helping to explain why globalisation isn't going anywhere anytime soon and why your dreams of a mercantile UK "bringing it all in house" are dead on arrival:
Oh, and then my blog post on the subject of the premature death of globalisation the other day: defencewithac.blogspot.com/2020/04/is-glo…
And if you're still convinced that WW3 is coming and worried that the UK can't re-arm for it, don't be. I wrote a post on just that subject last night as it happens. Indeed, today all the stars seem to be aligning quite nicely (so far...): defencewithac.blogspot.com/2020/04/could-…
