Right, let's move on to the treasury analysis. For reference the PDF version can be found here: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
"The analysis does not make judgements about any future UK Government policy decisions or responses" - Not a good start
From the outset the paper is quite transparent. It's going to attempt to show why the governments current policy approach to Brexit is the bestest. It is heavil tinted with political bias, which is precisely why the office for budget responsbility was set up.
The modelling for the No-Deal scenario assumes the UK would just retain all EU tariffs, even the ones we have no need for, and so has basically begun from a flawed starting point.
44 pages in and the report is basically just repeating itself endlessly, presenting the same information over and again. It reads like one of my blog posts. All the treasury appears to have done is apply incredibly simplified percentages to various base figures.
Given that the assumptions made are flawed, the percentages are also inherently flawed. This is not an economic analysis in any form. It is not worthy of that title. Most think tanks produce vastly better work than this.
There's not really a lot more to say about it. I was expecting something far more comprehensive, for example how the treasury made its assumptions. This is a truly pitiful piece of work. It is barren of any kind of logic that underpins it.
People angrily countering this work and that of the BoE are giving these documents far too much credit as economic works. They are fantasy documents. The last Labour manifesto had more rigour to it. What a fucking waste of everyones time and energy.
