Thread by @swardley

I'll be covering the basics of mapping, anticipation through weak signals and kicking off a research project focused on tech industrialisation that is heading our way including forcing functions such as COVID-19 - linkedin.com/events/webinar…

X : COVID-19?
Me : Hmmm. Ok, every from of capital (like physical things) diffuse but they also evolve. The two processes are connected but different. Let's take computing and pretend that it evolved through seven steps (in reality many more). Each step is a diffusion curve.

... now that component (i.e. computing) exists in a chain of components that are also evolving. That chain includes things and practices (another form of capital which also evolves).

... one of the more interesting patterns (there are many) is how when we shift from product to more commodity we enable new things, new practices as well as making the past more efficient (step VI to VII in the hypothetical below).

... in the case of computing, that change of practice was associated with a shift from high MTTR (mean time to recovery) to low MTTR. Anyway, it's a common pattern and that is all that really matters ...

... now the change also creates inertia to it which comes from pre-existing and successful capital i.e. we don't want to change because we have data centres and successful architectural patterns for example.

... but it also causes a flight of capital from the past worlds towards either the more efficient commodity providers or the new things and practices built on top. This is creative destruction in action.

But in order for this all to kick off, we need to have four factors in place. The most difficult to achieve is attitude i.e. you need people to want to change ...

... this is where new needs (i.e. the need for isolation caused by COVID-19) come into play. They're a forcing function for pre-existing change.

Same with mountains of manure in NYC in the 1900s and the automotive industry.

Now, for well over a decade (back tt those Canonical days when I used mapping against RedHat and MSFT) ... I called this pattern peace, war and wonder. The interesting part is the "war" i.e. when the industry kicks off.

I used the same patterns in nation state competition (i.e. China vs US) and in examining Serverless (i.e. the new practices that will emerge - [A])

I also used the same patterns in 2011 to identify new practices that were emerging in order to describe a future state (or next generation) of organisation

Anyway, I've weak signals for industrialisation and there are a lot changes coming towards us. We have a forcing function in COVID-19, we understand the pattern (the peace, war and wonder cycle) including how practices evolve, the punctuated equilibrium it causes etc

So, basically ... I need to use the points of industrialisation, the co-evolved practices that will form, the likely impact on different industries and the forcing functions such as COVID0-19 to try and work out ... what the next "next generation" will look like ...

... the good news is, that I don't have to rely on stories and magic thinking to do this and I can use a format (the maps) which allow people to challenge. This is what the webinar is all about - linkedin.com/events/webinar…

Best bit is that I have done this many times before and ... sure people are still telling me I'm wrong on Kubernetes & containers and I'm wrong on how DevOps is a new legacy or I'm wrong on how Serverless will dominate but at least they've gone quiet on Open Stack etc.

X : etc?
Me : cloud, backend JavaScript, open source, agile, use of devops, cell based structures, use of ecosystems, China dominating .... gosh, it's a long long list of things that I was told would never happen or was just for startups etc.