Did anyone else see the CNN interview with the U. of Washington researcher who explained all the reasons death tolls will be higher than we imagined—then announced that the IHME model had *dropped* its fatality estimate by 8,500? Do these people *know* they're confusing everyone?
PS/ The guy explained that increased post-mortem testing will increase the death toll, that (as explained on this feed and others weeks ago but absent from the IHME model) data *plateauing* means more deaths than anticipated...and then he announced IHME was dropping its estimate.
PS2/ When I wrote here that the IHME model was ignoring the plateauing in Italy even as it said it was incorporating Italy's data, I got hammered. And now today—3+ weeks later—the IHME is admitting that its model underestimated the plateaus we'd see—as opposed to discrete apexes.
PS3/ *None of us* know better than experts. But when experts are saying things that makes no sense to laypeople *and it is laypeople they are speaking to*, they *must* clarify their statements or, as here, non-experts will end up making more sense. And that's *bad for everyone*.
PS4/ Not only are the IHME folks losing credibility because they have no one who understands communications (one of the subjects I teach) speaking on their behalf with media, but their confusing updates are *dangerous* because they give folks a false sense of security mid-crisis.
PS5/ More than 60,000 will die in the first COVID-19 wave. We're over 35,000 now, and hitting new peaks in daily deaths each day *and* learning that a variety of factors led to a *grotesque* under-estimate re: the current death toll. Then there are likely second/subsequent waves.
PS6/ Every time the IHME makes the toll from COVID-19 seem less than it is and will be, it emboldens the crazies Trump is trying to stir to violence—and protests that'll lead to mass transmission of COVID-19—in Democratic-official-led states like Virginia, Minnesota and Michigan.
