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New York City has now reported 1 coronavirus death for every 1,000 people living there. What a horrifying milestone. Still hard for me to wrap my head around.

nytimes.com/interactive/20…
For perspective: Those numbers are now approaching the level of death seen in Lombardy, Italy

(102 deaths per 100,000 people, versus 118)

nytimes.com/interactive/20…
𝟖,𝟔𝟑𝟐 𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐫𝐮𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐬 in New York City

• More deaths than any other country except Italy, Spain, France and the U.K.
• 26% of all U.S. deaths
• 3 times higher than the immediate death toll at the World Trade Center on 9/11
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Mike Baker
@ByMikeBaker
For our story about Seattle's signs of progress, we wrote about the statistical modeling that had been shared privately with public officials in Washington State. That modeling has now been finalized.

Let's walk through it a bit more... (1/6)

nytimes.com/2020/03/29/us/…
Researchers believe transmission of the virus has “declined considerably" in the Seattle area.

When distancing measures began, each infected person was spreading to perhaps 2.7 others. That has dropped to ~1.4.

It needs to get below 1 for active infections to begin decreasing.
How does this modeling work?

They have tens of thousands of COVID-19 test results by date, along with coronavirus deaths. That’s being combined with other data points, including anonymized geolocation data on Facebook users, showing how much people are staying home. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
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Mike Baker
@ByMikeBaker
It's hard to grasp how dire the numbers are in New York right now. Here are a few ways to look at it:

First, as of this morning, New York State reached 20,875 cases. That is now more cases per capita than Italy (107 for every 100,000 people, versus 98).
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
While New York has far fewer deaths, that number is doubling about every two days, which is a significantly worse trajectory than Italy’s right now and about the same as Italy's earlier days.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
New York State identified more than 5,700 new cases in just the past day. That’s almost as much as the whole-outbreak tally in the U.K.

China only reported numbers jump by that much right after deciding to allow counting of people with a clinical diagnosis (and no lab test).
Read 4 tweets
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Mike Baker
@ByMikeBaker
I got a look at Washington State's strategy documents for combatting a disease outbreak.

There are 13 steps. On Wednesday, we reached step 10 with a ban on large gatherings. Yesterday, with the mass closure of schools and libraries, we entered step 11.

nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/…
The next steps on Washington state’s containment strategy include closing workplaces, keeping people in their homes and closing off specific geographical areas. Officials have been evaluating whether they may become necessary.
nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/…
A major factor in the decisions around containment is a growing body of research and data. Modelers have projected that 400 people in the Seattle area could die in the coming weeks if officials are unable to alter the trajectory of the outbreak.
Read 4 tweets

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