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For our story about Seattle's signs of progress, we wrote about the statistical modeling that had been shared privately with public officials in Washington State. That modeling has now been finalized.

Let's walk through it a bit more... (1/6)

nytimes.com/2020/03/29/us/…
Researchers believe transmission of the virus has “declined considerably" in the Seattle area.

When distancing measures began, each infected person was spreading to perhaps 2.7 others. That has dropped to ~1.4.

It needs to get below 1 for active infections to begin decreasing.
How does this modeling work?

They have tens of thousands of COVID-19 test results by date, along with coronavirus deaths. That’s being combined with other data points, including anonymized geolocation data on Facebook users, showing how much people are staying home. (3/6)
While uncertainty remains high, the researchers estimate that, without social distancing, daily infections a week ago in the Seattle area would have been *three times higher*

(4/6)
The gains still aren’t enough, and they are precarious. Here, the researchers see signs that people in the Seattle area are moving around more on the weekends, including just a couple days ago. That's happening despite a stay-home order.

(And the weather is improving)

5/6
The researchers conclude: “Our main result is that the epidemic has slowed, but that more progress is necessary.”

“Compliance with social distancing policies will remain an important facet of daily life over the coming days and weeks”

Full report: covid.idmod.org/data/Understan…

(6/6)
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