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It's hard to grasp how dire the numbers are in New York right now. Here are a few ways to look at it:

First, as of this morning, New York State reached 20,875 cases. That is now more cases per capita than Italy (107 for every 100,000 people, versus 98).
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
While New York has far fewer deaths, that number is doubling about every two days, which is a significantly worse trajectory than Italy’s right now and about the same as Italy's earlier days.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
New York State identified more than 5,700 new cases in just the past day. That’s almost as much as the whole-outbreak tally in the U.K.

China only reported numbers jump by that much right after deciding to allow counting of people with a clinical diagnosis (and no lab test).
New York State now accounts for more than half of all confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States. If it were its own country, it would rank only behind China, Italy, Spain, Iran and Germany

nytimes.com/interactive/20…
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Mike Baker
@ByMikeBaker
I got a look at Washington State's strategy documents for combatting a disease outbreak.

There are 13 steps. On Wednesday, we reached step 10 with a ban on large gatherings. Yesterday, with the mass closure of schools and libraries, we entered step 11.

nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/…
The next steps on Washington state’s containment strategy include closing workplaces, keeping people in their homes and closing off specific geographical areas. Officials have been evaluating whether they may become necessary.
nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/…
A major factor in the decisions around containment is a growing body of research and data. Modelers have projected that 400 people in the Seattle area could die in the coming weeks if officials are unable to alter the trajectory of the outbreak.
Read 4 tweets
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Mike Baker
@ByMikeBaker
EXCLUSIVE:
For weeks, thousands of flu samples sat in Seattle as researchers sought to test and flag them for coronavirus. The C.D.C. wouldn’t allow it.

When testing did happen, it was too late. The virus was upon us.

nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/… w/ @sherifink
Emails and interviews show that after the weeks of C.D.C. rejections, researchers in Seattle decided to defy regulators and test anyway. They ended up finding and reporting the first case of community-transmission in the region.

nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/…
By that point, we now know, the virus had already spread undetected. Two people had already died. A nursing home now linked to 19 deaths hadn’t yet learned that their sickness troubles were coronavirus.
Read 5 tweets
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Mike Baker
@ByMikeBaker
I recently came across a striking test case for laws designed to take guns from dangerous people.

The man had posted:
“i will shoot any woman any time for any reason”
“Kill all women”
A photo of himself with rifles: “one ticket for joker please”

1/
 nytimes.com/2019/11/18/us/…
Police initially won an order to take his weapons, seizing three rifles and three handguns. But the man went to court and testified the online messages were jokes. A judge ordered the guns returned.

There are similarly difficult cases happening around the country...

2/
In Florida, a man who praised mass shooters online indicated an openness to shooting at one of his former schools, authorities said.

They blocked him from buying guns. A judge restored the right after his attorney contended that his comments weren’t a credible threat.

3/
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Related threads

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Barack Obama
@BarackObama
Here are a few stories that have less to do with the very real medical or economic aspects of this crisis, and more with how we take care of each other as a human family during all crises:
.@sullydish witnessed the impact of HIV-AIDS on the LGBT community in the early stages of that devastating disease: nymag.com/intelligencer/…
And @cripchick, a disabled activist, understands what it’s like for people with particular vulnerabilities to come together for support:
kqed.org/news/11806414/…
Read 4 tweets
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Chris Hayes
@chrislhayes
Right now a $1000 per person in the US would cost $330 bn a month. Do it for three months, while economic life is disrupted and you come in right at a trillion dollars. Doesn't solve everything, but would be straightforward and progressive in its impact.
Keep in mind, investors right now are *paying the US government to hold their money*. It quite literally pays for itself.
And yes, credit to @AndrewYang ! (though there are many many others who have worked on and proposed UBI)
Read 3 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW from me: What would happen if the Democrats instituted a national primary using ranked-choice voting? I got the data from @YouGovUS and crunched the numbers:

economist.com/graphic-detail…
@YouGovUS We had YouGov ask over 2,000 Democratic voters to rank all the 2020 candidates over the past month. We used those responses to simulate ranked-choice voting in the primary.

How does RCV work, you ask? Just a reminder....
@YouGovUS 0. Count up all the ballots
1. Did someone win a majority of the vote? If yes, they win. If not....
2. Anyone who listed the last-place candidate gets their votes redistributed to their next-ranked option.
3. Re-tally the votes and repeat 1-2 until someone gets a majority.
Read 10 tweets
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Inquisitive Bird
@Scientific_Bird
Statistical significance and p-values:

We often rely on conventional thresholds of statistical significance. We calculate that p<.05, so statistically significant, right?

However, here are a few things to at least consider first.

Thread.
● If you do multiple hypothesis tests, then by chance you're more likely to find some p-values below any threshold, even if the null hypothesis is true.

A team showed, if no corrections for false discovery rate, a dead salmon showed significant brain signal measured by fMRI!
● If you have very much statistical power, it turns out that p-values such as 0.04 are, perhaps surprisingly, more likely under the null hypothesis.

Hence some have suggested that you should lower the significance threshold as sample size increases.

daniellakens.blogspot.com/2018/12/testin…
Read 4 tweets
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Cyrus Toulabi
@CyrusToulabi
I can't with this guy...but interestingly, he's also revealing a lot with each one of these interviews.

Why not just go speak to the Grand Jury? Clearly, it's not about avoiding spending more time talking about the investigation and your experience...

He can't help himself..
#NOW: SAM NUNBERG says he was told he wasn't a target or a subject of the investigation and he was OFFERED IMMUNITY by the Special Counsel's team.

He also said THEY WANT HIM TO TESTIFY...TO CATCH ROGER STONE ON PERJURY...

ADMITTING THAT ROGER MAY HAVE LIED TO PROSECUTORS.
#LOL: Save this one...

SAM NUNBERG: "I'M NOT GOING TO JAIL, COME ON."
Read 5 tweets
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Hugo Kaaman
@HKaaman
New thread about gang-related shootings & IED use in Sweden
Oct 1: Explosions outside two different restaurants in central Malmö damage building exteriors sydsvenskan.se/2017-10-01/lar…
Oct 4: Police seize 2 assault rifles, hand grenade, a pistol & ammo in apartment raid in central Malmö, Sweden sydsvenskan.se/2017-10-04/vap…
Read 35 tweets

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