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Reinfection worries ...

Singapore was widely praised as the model of how to contain a pandemic.

Then they started to take their foot off the brake about three weeks ago (just as the US is about to do) ...

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Japan was also considered a place that had a handle on it. They too started to ease up a few weeks ago. Two days ago they went back to nation-wide quarantine.

(2/3)
Three countries that decided to "let it rip" got they wanted … it seems to be ripping

(3/3)
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Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
Arguably the most important "high frequency" stat is initial claims. Tomorrow's estimate is 5.4m (gray bar).

This would bring the total to around 22m, 13.5% of the workforce. It would also make the April payroll estimates of a loss of 20 million jobs look about right.

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I believe continuing claims will replace initial claims as the important metric. Watching this come down will tell us about the effectiveness of the Paycheck Protection Plan (PPP) loans. Are people getting their old jobs back (so the company can have the loan forgiven)?

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If continuing claims are not down A LOT by, say 75% by Jul-1, regardless the state of the "restart," the PPP did not work. These jobs are gone!

If the stock market recovers and millions are unemployed at the same time, the social unrest will be far worse than 2009.

(3/3)
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Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
Tale of markets.
The New York FANG Index is now up on the year.
The S&P 500 is down 12.4% YTD.
Bank stocks are 37.57% YTD.

(1/4)
The NY FANG Index took out its 61.8% retracement and was up HUUGGE today.

(2/4)
The S&P 500 took out its 50% retracement today and had a decent day.

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
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Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
Trump's approval rating continues to surge to new highs.

One chart is an aggregate of all the polls, showing its trend. The other is Gallup alone.

Both are at new highs.

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The betting market has Trump fortunes improving.

Notice that Trump (blue), by name, has a 10 point lead over Biden (orange).

But Democrat (blue) and Republican (red) are essentially tied

<more>

@PredictIt

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Biden (orange) as a candidate was 90% a week ago. Now he is 76%. Cuomo (cyan) and Sanders (red) are rallying again.

If I had to interpret this, I believe it is more saying "not Joe" than saying "Cuomo or Sanders."

@PredictIt

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