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Most Chinese leaders I’ve spoken with want a second Trump term.

They think relationship with US will be more confrontational whoever wins in November.

But they see Trump’s #AmericaFirst unilateralism and poor relations w many allies providing more opportunity for China.
Trump Admin has been particularly troublesome for China on technology. And they don’t like the tariffs.

But no focus on human rights from Trump, a big win for Beijing.

And Trump pulled US out of TPP, the most important strategic balancer vs China.
If Trump decides blaming China for the pandemic is core to his re-election campaign and puts muscle behind it, could shift the equation.

But so far Trump’s been careful to continue to praise President Xi.
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ian bremmer
@ianbremmer
I’m unconvinced the US is the big geopolitical loser post coronavirus.

Yes, absence of US leadership gives China more influence, particularly w poor countries that desperately need help. But there’s also going to be backlash from China’s initial responsibility of pandemic.
Meanwhile, increased dominance of American Big Tech companies in the overall landscape—especially critical in opening economies after coronavirus—will give the US much more economic and rule-setting power vis other democracies.
Europe’s economic rebound will be weaker than the US. And emerging markets overall will have a far harder time.

Hard to see the dollar getting weakened in that environment.
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ian bremmer
@ianbremmer
Let’s be honest. It’s hurts to see China sending humanitarian aid to the US and Europe.
It’s the demise of a worldview. The idea that the Americans and allied democracies lead the world by example.

It was never as true or as powerful as its adherents claimed. But it was a guiding principle, worthy of aspiration.

I fear we aren’t going to like the alternative.
It’s not easy to give up a worldview that you grew up with and that you took some pride in.

Most American exceptionalists today fall in between denial and anger on the grief cycle.
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ian bremmer
@ianbremmer
Wuhan lockdown on Jan 23 came after millions of Chinese left Wuhan—while outbreak was suppressed by Chinese govt.

China govt propaganda accepting zero responsibility is unacceptable and will further damage US relations.
Even after that, Chinese govt criticized US for curtailing travel from China. If those measures hadn’t been taken, expected deaths would be far higher.
US govt has made mistakes, no question. Absence of effective tests and lag/lack of coordination in shutdown also responsible.

But China does not get to abdicate and point fingers at the US.
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