Thread by @JeffJacksonNC

Let's talk about what we know about reopening North Carolina.

Here are our COVID hospitalizations.

We're just starting to get the post-stay-home data given incubation time + time it takes to get tested + time it takes to be hospitalized.

Maybe leveling?

/thread/

Infection numbers are less reliable because we're still strictly rationing tests, but according to them the statewide doubling time has gone from 2.5 days to 10 days.

Mecklenburg has not made quite as much progress. Our doubling time has gone from 2.85 days to 6 days.

But if we continue to see the rate of hospitalization slow down, then that means we are on course to get past the peak while minimizing the loss of life in our state.

In short, if we keep this up then we won't max out our ICU capacity.

That's a remarkable accomplishment, especially given that our collective action as individuals was overwhelmingly responsible for making it happen.

This is a citizen-led pandemic response, and it appears to be working.

That means we're now in a position to start having a realistic conversation about what reopening will look like.

And here's the thing:

We only want to have to reopen ONCE.

The nightmare scenario from an economic standpoint is that we reopen before we're ready, infection spikes, and we have to reclose.

We cannot let that happen.

We only want to restart this economic engine once because every time you turn it off it does a ton of damage.

While different models show different peak times, all the models we're using agree on what happens if we let up before we have this under control:

We get a viral surge that undoes all the sacrifice people have made.

The only way we can reopen and remain open is if flatten the curve AND get widespread testing.

So where are we with testing?

Making some progress:

Sec. Cohen (NC DHHS) says we need to at least double our testing.

That's because once we reopen the odds of future outbreaks are 100%.

When they happen, we're either going to reclose OR have access to widespread testing that lets us quickly identify and contain the outbreak.

Right now the biggest bottleneck for testing is the PPE that health care workers have to wear to administer the tests.

Yes, we still don't have as many test kits as we'd like, but PPE is the critical shortage right now.

(And specifically NC needs more surgical gowns.)

The big problem here is that we're still in a bidding war against other states.

We've made over $150m worth of bids and only a fraction have been filled.

It's the wild west getting your hands on PPE right now and we need a smarter approach.

PPE acquisition is now a national problem and it probably requires a national plan - with major federal coordination - to solve.

This directly impacts our ability to scale up testing, which directly impacts our ability to reopen and remain open.

PPE = Testing = Fully reopening