Experts nailing it in this crisis...
Michael Gove says that Turkey has sent to the UK
tonnes of PPE including 400k surgical gowns as they run out for NHS medics battling Covid...
Happened last week too, with RAF thanking “valued friend and ally” for helping NHS
tonnes of PPE including 400k surgical gowns as they run out for NHS medics battling Covid...
Happened last week too, with RAF thanking “valued friend and ally” for helping NHS
Now unclear whether this is arriving today - but it is incredible to see last week’s consignment from Turkey to NHS appeared on UK Gov video to be bilateral diplomatic negotiation literally marked with Erdogan’s “Presidency of the Republic of Turkey”... 
Gove also announced ambassador in China secured 25m items of PPE. Anyone who thinks UK about to pile in on “blame China” strategy should take look at @ukinchina twitter feed...
Filling up BA 777 passenger seats from Shanghai with boxes of surgical masks:
Filling up BA 777 passenger seats from Shanghai with boxes of surgical masks:
Point about sending PPE to China is somewhat spurious, 266k pieces is TINY symbolic amount vs annual usage, at time China factories were closed... has clearly reaped outsize goodwill from Chinese, now many factories are back up and running, and NHS need imports. Net benefit big
What I should have said is 266k is TINY in relation to daily use, and even tinier versus annual. There’s plenty to be critical of here, but UK showing some humanitarian instinct when China was desperate, sensible internationalism, but also turns out to be sensible self interest.
Eg as there are 2000 masks in each box put into each passenger seat - there’s probably as much PPE as we gave on this single BA flight coming back from Beijing earlier this week, than we gave...
It’s a detail that sounds more eye catching than deserved - but I think the Sunday Times report is very interesting and most does accord with much of what I have researched and been told about speed of action, especially in late Feb, early March - but separate thread for that...
If you liked this Marr interview with Professor Gilbert, then let me do a thread on perhaps clearest exposition of this virus I heard - when I spoke to CEO of Astra Zeneca Pascal Soriot about how after we deal with this “acute” phase... its going to become “chronic” for months...
He said this: “what we've learned, is that this virus is a little bit special, because not only its very contagious, on top of this in some patients, and it's hard to define exactly who they are, it really triggers an immune response that can be very, very big and kills patients”
PS: “we've recovered antibody from Patients who are cured from the virus. And now engineering an antibody that is basically duplicating replicating this natural antibody, and we're improving it, we're improving it to make it last longer in the body..” for propylactic treatment
PS: “The other thing we do is to try & interfere with this immune response. So we have one agent in our portfolio of existing products.. we believe we can turn off the immune response and inflammatory reaction. We have started treating patients but we need to do a larger study”.
Key thing - as Ive said here for ages - NOT flu:
PS: “this virus is very contagious. And it's not like the flu, the flu is less contagious. So you've got to have a set of strategies to deal with a virus like this that is different.. tell people stay home, social distancing, etc”
PS: “this virus is very contagious. And it's not like the flu, the flu is less contagious. So you've got to have a set of strategies to deal with a virus like this that is different.. tell people stay home, social distancing, etc”
Second difference:
“in some patients, you have immune response that develops what people call a cytokine storm, series of inflammatory cytokines that creates inflammatory response in the lungs, people develop this respiratory distress, and then the organ failure [ie kidneys too]”
“in some patients, you have immune response that develops what people call a cytokine storm, series of inflammatory cytokines that creates inflammatory response in the lungs, people develop this respiratory distress, and then the organ failure [ie kidneys too]”
Soriot: “we have to develop response as it relates to the immune reaction. And a set of strategies to deal with contagious aspect. Because at end of day, what seems to be case is people don't seem to be killed by virus itself, but more about immune response that some develop”
So I asked him - pandemic flu plans appropriate for pandemic coronavirus?
“appropriate, except scale of it now different... [contagiousness means] have to find strategies to slow down epidemic until we can find vaccines. With flu, we have more time because it's not as contagious”
“appropriate, except scale of it now different... [contagiousness means] have to find strategies to slow down epidemic until we can find vaccines. With flu, we have more time because it's not as contagious”
... so absent a vaccine this is not going to be a few weeks, its months?
“maybe longer coping with this. And my hope is, and I think if we all do a good job working together, we could get there. My hope is that we'll move out of this acute phase into a more chronic situation.”
“maybe longer coping with this. And my hope is, and I think if we all do a good job working together, we could get there. My hope is that we'll move out of this acute phase into a more chronic situation.”
Soriot: “More chronic situation [where] we will be able to manage epidemic until we get either a treatment like an antiviral agent or vaccine. So just need to manage this acute phase. What I would like to ask everybody who's listening, please stay home..be disciplined, patient”
ask him not just as scientist but also top businessman about “trade off”:
“have to balance of course, saving as many lives as possible but also return to normal life and restart the economy because a lot of misery & problems is now generated with so many people losing jobs, etc.”
“have to balance of course, saving as many lives as possible but also return to normal life and restart the economy because a lot of misery & problems is now generated with so many people losing jobs, etc.”
Astra CEO on masks (donated 9m to NHS via China supply chains):
“where you have high density of people wearing masks like they've done in China v successfully and in Korea & other Asian countries, wearing a mask will be useful tool, but we need to make sure we have enough masks”
“where you have high density of people wearing masks like they've done in China v successfully and in Korea & other Asian countries, wearing a mask will be useful tool, but we need to make sure we have enough masks”
More from AZ chief on public masks:
“when the masks more available, you can, you know, use masks in the community, as well...What you're trying to do is reduce the overall risk of contamination. So, if I wear a mask, I'm less exposed, but also I'm exposing you less”
“when the masks more available, you can, you know, use masks in the community, as well...What you're trying to do is reduce the overall risk of contamination. So, if I wear a mask, I'm less exposed, but also I'm exposing you less”
So what I took from that interview (some of which we put on news last week)
- Actual exit strategy only comes from vaccine or treatment
- NOT FLU. Any lockdown lift has to account rampant contagiousness in meantime
- many months “managing it”
- will prob involve masks in cities
- Actual exit strategy only comes from vaccine or treatment
- NOT FLU. Any lockdown lift has to account rampant contagiousness in meantime
- many months “managing it”
- will prob involve masks in cities
If, in order to unlock urban economies, we need masks for public (though denied now), first need to secure health/ care/ emergency supplies...then Govt needs to make a big call on mass production, weeks before required, so there’s enough when needed.
surely = domestic production
surely = domestic production
One of the first lessons learnt here is that you cant have Government basically mandate the purchase of something - eg hand gel... and then not have the supplies ready.
Other countries, eg Turkey, are handing out 5 masks each to all non-quarantined citizens.
Other countries, eg Turkey, are handing out 5 masks each to all non-quarantined citizens.
PS
NOT FLU.
NOT FLU.
PPS - interesting counterfactual for us all about what might have happened if the Coalition Government had allowed US pharma giants to takeover AZ in 2014 ... Thoughts? @vincecable
