Well this is some gold dust...
A minister has tweeted the PPE stock levels and really importantly the daily usage rates of PPE at their local hospital trust in Lincolnshire - pointing out that such transparency helps confidence...
A minister has tweeted the PPE stock levels and really importantly the daily usage rates of PPE at their local hospital trust in Lincolnshire - pointing out that such transparency helps confidence...
Amazing amounts of PPE required daily in one trust (3 hospitals):
39,500 surgical masks per day
11495 gloves per day
1501 gowns per day
4201 FFP3 (highly protective respirator) masks
72,000 items a day for one trust
39,500 surgical masks per day
11495 gloves per day
1501 gowns per day
4201 FFP3 (highly protective respirator) masks
72,000 items a day for one trust
So what we really need to know is these daily usage figures nationwide... to get a fix on how much is a big number in terms of distribution here...
1/400 of UK hospitals of different size
Lincolnshire has around 1/200 cases in the UK... 70 Covid deaths at this trust, out of 15k
1/400 of UK hospitals of different size
Lincolnshire has around 1/200 cases in the UK... 70 Covid deaths at this trust, out of 15k
If this is being done locally, then its is difficult to see why these numbers could not be provided nationally... but still...
IF this trust’s use of PPE per local area cases is typical of UK... - then 14 million PPE items needed per day nationally...
IF this trust’s use of PPE per local area cases is typical of UK... - then 14 million PPE items needed per day nationally...
IF this trusts use of PPE per Covid death is typical of the nation...
then the UK’s usage of PPE is 15.5 million items per day...
If these 3 hospitals are typical of average hospital in UK...
Then the UK’s usage of PPE is more like 29 million items per day.
then the UK’s usage of PPE is 15.5 million items per day...
If these 3 hospitals are typical of average hospital in UK...
Then the UK’s usage of PPE is more like 29 million items per day.
Here is the original tweet with the message on usage rates... Thanks to minister @mattwarman
Anyway, this gives us a baseline to compare with the very big numbers always mentioned at the press conference... a billion has been mentioned... but this is the most detailed breakdown I’ve seen a week ago 761 million items with timeframe...
need to take out extra bits classified by Govt as PPE, but not in above table (swabs, hand sanitizers, body bags)...
So that is 654 million pieces of PPE between Feb 25th and April 11th - so that is over 46 days.
avg 14m delivered a day..
So at low end but just in range above
So that is 654 million pieces of PPE between Feb 25th and April 11th - so that is over 46 days.
avg 14m delivered a day..
So at low end but just in range above
But those numbers distributed were significantly and overly comprised of gloves... and a surplus of gloves is of no use if you need a gown or a mask...
So lets take gloves out of both the Lincolnshire stats and the UK delivery ones....
So lets take gloves out of both the Lincolnshire stats and the UK delivery ones....
So focus just on aprons, gowns & masks (surgical and FFP3)...
Last week’s breakdown said 294 million items delivered in 46 days or average of 6.4m items a day...
But IF ULHT daily usage is typical of UK by case rate, death rate, or number hospitals
PPE usage = 11m to 22m a day
Last week’s breakdown said 294 million items delivered in 46 days or average of 6.4m items a day...
But IF ULHT daily usage is typical of UK by case rate, death rate, or number hospitals
PPE usage = 11m to 22m a day
these calcs don’t show PPE underprovided, but offer some context, certainly motivate reasoned questions about massive numbers declared...
What were the size of the stockpiles?
What are national daily usage rates, in & out of NHS?
What is resupply plan?
What were the size of the stockpiles?
What are national daily usage rates, in & out of NHS?
What is resupply plan?
My colleague Hugh Pym asks why it took so long for UK domestic suppliers to be asked, and if stockpiles were allowed to be run down...
Harries asks for “more adult” conversation re PPE, & we shouldn’t “lump it altogether”..tho about 10 secs later Williamson uses 1 billion number
Harries asks for “more adult” conversation re PPE, & we shouldn’t “lump it altogether”..tho about 10 secs later Williamson uses 1 billion number
... I wrote don’t “show” whereas I meant “prove” because there may be reasons a simple extrapolation range may not apply - however, in absence of detailed national stats they clearly offer context for the “hundreds of millions” numbers on supply. They sound big. MAY not be.
“adult conversation” on PPE would be greatly aided with these numbers ...
Really interesting data point on stockpile question, from digging from Guardian...
accounting treatment so there could be impact of capital depreciation and perhaps sharp fall in value of sterling after Brexit referendum... checking it out:
theguardian.com/world/2020/apr…
accounting treatment so there could be impact of capital depreciation and perhaps sharp fall in value of sterling after Brexit referendum... checking it out:
theguardian.com/world/2020/apr…
Quick check - not depreciation on stockpiled goods.
French PM has just tweeted clear stats on size of mask stockpile, usage, local production and sharp increase in imports, and explained that they’ll now expand to caregivers... via @Sime0nStylites
