Thread by @faisalislam

4300 care home deaths from April 10th to 24th counted by CQC, now included in ONS figures ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

“May be an underestimate...”

Started my thread on this on April 7th... lots of detail here on Govt own outbreak data... we are now getting what seems like accurate data...

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1247643321838821378?s=20

The 4,300 care home deaths number is resident in and died in care homes, so anyone moved to a hospital would not be double counted. Likely to go up, ONS says.

So on average 2014-2019 the week to 17th April has seen 10,497 deaths in Eng & Wales

2020 - 22,351 deaths

so more than double trend, 11.854 more than average

Of which: 8.758 mentioned Covid on death certificate
and 1,776 with “respiratory disease”

registered Care home deaths (England & Wales) in past 6 weeks: week to 13 March/ 20M/ 27M/ 3A/ 10A/ 17 April

officially registered as from Covid at care homes:

0/2/20/195/826/ 2050/

In total at care homes:

2471/ 2335/ 2489/ 3769/ 4927/ 7316

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

Also same tragic pattern for deaths at home...

COVID-19 registered deaths, weekly from MArch 13 - to April 17

0/1/15/120/330/416
- so 902 in total.

All home deaths over same period:

2725/ 2709/ 2786/ 3865/ 4117/ 4570

- up over 4000 in total versus weekly rate at start March

So here is the new raw data provided by the care regulator the CQC to the ONS on the 4343 care home deaths, notified over a fortnight.

Can’t conclude about the peak here, because don’t know which day deaths occurred - but its running about 400 a day

We all really need to know the basis for concluding that there has been any peaking of the issue in care homes - and how that feeds into calculation of “R0”... and indeed the cause of the plausibly later peak here versus hospitals...

The care home data is really important step though now, even as it seemed to come through later than required - its also- broken down by day and by local authority - very helpful from CQC:

Here is the actual list of Care home Covid deaths reported to CQC by local authority April 10-24th (previous tweet used all death numbers)

1. Hampshire - 145
2. Hertfordshire - 121
3. Surrey -121
4. Gloucestershire - 100
5. Kent - 95
6. Oxfordshire - 90

And least affected council areas so far for care home Covid deaths, by notifications to CQC:

1. NE Lincolnshire -0
2. Rutland - 0
3. Bracknell Forest -1
4. Hackney -1
5. Herefordshire - 2
6. Blackburn - 3
7. Isle of Wight - 3

Care home deaths from Covid by date of death up till April 17th, as reported to ONS, do not show a peak, more a plateau of 300 a day
/ONS:
ons.gov.uk/generator?uri=…

Nor can peak be inferred from CQC data, by date of notification...400 a day
/ONS/ CQC:
ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpe…

Health Sec announced daily numbers - which is important - and it would be great if peak had happened. But its not in the stats. There are also reasons why the pattern might be different in homes than in hospitals.

And it would be v problematic to misjudge peak in social care.

Care home deaths from Covid by day... Red bars show last week’s reported data, blue bars this week

Unfortunately did continue to rise through to 17th with new data...

which is also why you cant assert there’s been a peak yet in care homes - eg last weeks data revised up by 100+

This chart shows Covid death, hospitals and care homes by day. Definitely looks like hospital deaths peaked on April 8th...

But care home deaths still up after at least an extra 9 days a
given revisions...

Covid peak arrives in care homes well after hospitals

From ONS:

https://twitter.com/nickstripe_ons/status/1257613035042213888?s=21