Thread by @Elizrael

Interesting article by former senior Russian diplomat, Alexander Aksienionok, who served in Syria under Hafez’ regime, criticizing both the Syrian leadership, painting the regime as economically fragile & having a weak grip over areas under its control kommersant.ru/doc/4324084

Aksienionok argues that the main threats to the regime, short-term, are economic, not military due to a confluence of factors: economic collapse in Lebanon, prolonged war, fall in global oil prices, US sanctions, and now COVID-19.

Aksienionok explicitly pushes for political reform ahead of the 2021 presidential elections in Syria.
My translation of notable sections: “the difficult circumstances force Damascus to properly assess the risks and develop a long-term strategy...

... The new military reality cannot be sustainable without economic reconstruction and the establishment of a political system that relies on a truly inclusive base and would reflect an international compromise.”

“However, Damascus is unwilling to display long-term thinking & flexibility, counting on... a military solution with the support of its allies and on receiving unconditioned financial & economic assistance, as in the times of the Soviet-American conflict in the Middle East”

“As the conflict in Syria deescalates, it has become even more glaringly apparent the unwillingness of inability of the leadership in Damascus to establish a governance system that will shift conditions from a war economy to a normal economy based on trade & economic ties.”

“Even areas under gov control continue to be ruled by their own laws: confiscations from traders, transit of goods, humanitarian convoys, benefiting a cohort made up of privileged ranking officials in the Army and security forces, middlemen & businessmen loyal to the leadership.”

“During the years of the war, centers of influence and shadow structures have emerged that are not interested in the transition to peaceful economic development...

... Although there are desires for reform among businessmen, sectors of the non-war economy, and some parts of the state apparatus, the atmosphere of pervasive fear and the dominance of the secret police, these desires are not expressed publicly.”

Aksienionok concludes that due to the inability of Syria’s few supporters to finance its reconstruction unless a political transition is necessary with real elections held in line with the demands of UN Security Council resolution 2254.

3 days ago, the Kremlin's news agency RIA FAN apparently ran between 3-6 articles highly critical of Assad that were later deleted. Those articles allegedly described rampant corruption in Syria, argued that Assad is no longer popular among Syrians almodon.com/arabworld/2020…

One of the articles on RIA FAN (run by Putin's chef, Prigozhin) was not deleted: it accuses senior Syrian officials of diverting electricity to Lebanon & oil received from Iran for export to Turkey, with profits going into their pockets riafan.ru/1267487-korrup… v @AlbinSzakola

Report on one of the deleted articles from a Kremlin-run media outlet about Assad's unpopularity
aawsat.com/english/home/a…

Article in another Kremlin-run outlet accuses senior Assad regime officials of making up disruptions to gas fields in the Homs desert (due to fighting with Assad) so they can siphon off electricity to Lebanon & line their pockets bit.ly/34NJYQO

Yet another article in Pravda (Kremlin-run) on Assad's corruption & unpopularity: "The fault of all of this [corruption] - the clan of President Bashar al-Assad, which has mired in illegal schemes and profiteering on the backs of the simple citizens of the Arab Republic...

...Assad personally and his relatives are displaying luxury items at a time when the country is only starting to climb out of the horrors of the civil war...The huge problems in Syria's economy and the all-encompassing corruption schemes surrounding Bashar al-Assad's family are

...preventing Syria from achieving normal development after the end of the war.... All of this has negative consequences on the situation inside the Arab Rebublic: the locals are unhappy about the high levers of corruption and the behavior of Bashar al-Assad....

... Unable to improve the economic situation inside Syria, the Syrian president may again lose half the country - due to the fault of his many relatives."
pravda.ru/world/1488754-…

I obtained a presentation on the survey allegedly carried out by a Russian state-run polling firm in Syria in April 2020 among 1,000 Syrians, reported by RIA FAN (Kremlin-run outlet).
Whether an actual survey was done is unclear - could be just Kremlin propaganda.

The survey shows Assad's deep unpopularity - only 31.4% rate him favorably, 41.3% negatively. The rest refuse to answer or play dumb. The overall high rates of non-response throughout the survey is a possible indication that the poll isn't fake.

What are the biggest problems in Syria? (multiple choices possible)
71.3% - corruption
60.6% low salaries & high cost of living
43.4% lack of electricity
36.7% lack of a legitimate government
16.1% not enough food
15.7% lack of political stability
12.6% threat of terrorism

In the 2021 elections, will you vote for Bashar al-Assad for president?
No 53.5%
Yes 32.1%
What do you think about Assad running in the 2021 elections?
23.5% Positively
36.8% Negatively
39.7% unable to answer

If the president decides not to run in the 2021 elections, how will you regard the decision?
43.6% mostly positively
12.4% mostly negatively
15.9% neutral
28.1% unable to answer

How likely are massive protests in Syria against Bashar al-Assad?
9.3% very likely
27.8% likely
10.4% not very likely
28.9% protests are inherently impossible
23.6% unable to answer

"Syria needs economic reforms" - 78.6% agree, 10.6% disagree
"Syria needs to see the emergence of new strong politicians" 70.2% agree, 9.3% disagree
"The president should start negotiations for a Kurdish autonomy" 29.4% agree, 33.7% disagree

"It is necessary for the Syrian Army to retake all areas of the country" 30.5% agree, 35.8% disagree
"Damascus needs to give more autonomy to the provinces" 41.9% agree, 25.7% disagree
drive.google.com/file/d/1QzVbIJ…