Thread by @Elizrael

For the first time since the start of the uprising in Syria, there are shortages of bread in state bakeries areas that have always remained under regime control. I've confirmed with sources in Damascus city, Hama, Sweidaa.

Confirmed this now with a source in Deir Ezzor city in the section that always remained under regime control. The areas reconquered by the regime have been experiencing shortages for much longer.

Wheat is not under Western sanctions. The Assad regime is just broke. It recently issued a tender for purchase of wheat and couldn't find buyers for the price it offered.
bit.ly/3aO65IM
More on the unprecedented economic crisis in regime areas bit.ly/2T75GLg

The Assad regime knew full-well it would not be able to afford to provide its people with the cheapest source of calories - bread (hence issuing and re-issuing tenders for wheat), but still decided to relaunch the costly Idlib campaign. These are the regime's priorities.

A source just confirmed to me that the shortage of flour is affecting state bakeries providing subsidized bread in the area of Qardaha as well, the ancestral home of the Assad clan. This indicates the shortage is nation-wide & not due to local supply issues/corruption

Syria currently has one bid out for 200,000 tonnes of soft milling wheat. 4 recent bids for wheat failed because:
*Syria tried to get buyers to accept Euros instead of USD to bypass sanctions
*There's uncertainty about its ability to pay
*It likely offered too low of a price

The regime urgently needs wheat & urgent purchases are more expensive than wheat futures. Based on past purchases, the 200,000 tones purchased in an urgent manner would cost Syria about $45-55 million. (analysis by @delfoo)

Syria needs roughly about 650,000 tonnes of wheat to get to the harvest season, which starts in June (FAO graphic). We're in March and the regime is struggling to buy even 200,000 tonnes. This is based on an annual consumption of 2.5 million tonnes of wheat.

Russia promised to provide Syria with a donation of 100,000 tonnes of wheat but has only delivered 30,000 tonnes (b2b-sy.com/news/58203/ and b2b-sy.com/news/57669/). What Russia did rush to deliver? More armor and Russian troops reuters.com/article/us-syr…

Syrian gov official floats the idea of ending direct subsidies of bread or moving the distribution of bread to the smart card system (thus likely restricting quantity sold) as "solutions" to the bread crisis alwatan.sy/archives/235821 State bread costs SYP 50 ($0.05)

Acc to the official, the Syrian gov spends 1 billion SYP ($1 million) daily to support bakeries, which should instead be distributed to the poor. He claimed the bread subsidy doesn't make sense since it benefits all. But in reality, the middle class doesn't purchase state bread

The middle class & rich eat higher quality privately manufactured bread, known as "tourist bread," costing about SYP 450, $0.45. Those who can't afford it but don't want to wait in line for hours outside state bakeries can buy state bread without waiting in line for SYP 100-150.