@TFAAfrica @SIAF_NG People no doubt want answers. Our experts at the Presidential Taskforce need to do more on transparency as demonstrated in other climes in order to win the confidence of the people. #BeatingCoronaNigeria
@TFAAfrica @SIAF_NG Citizens have been pondering over the determination of the percentage of those infected by the coronavirus and the percentage that will die. This is also a key question for epidemiologists, but an elusive one during the pandemic. #BeatingCoronaNigeria
@TFAAfrica @SIAF_NG This is where Epidemiological MODELING comes into play by intelligent policy makers. As highlighted by experts like @DrCOmole et al. #BeatingCoronaNigeria
@TFAAfrica @SIAF_NG @DrCOmole We’ve been working the numbers too & seeking standards in achieving this & according to various unofficial Covid-19 trackers that calculate the death rate by dividing total deaths by the number of known cases, about 6.4% of people infected with the virus have now died worldwide.
@TFAAfrica @SIAF_NG @DrCOmole Using the same approach 3.5% was obtained for Nigeria based on the NCDC figures on Death and Total Cases. We were also able to justify the fluidity of the figures. #BeatingCoronaNigeria #SaveTheFuture #TheFutureProject
@TFAAfrica @SIAF_NG @DrCOmole “Fatality rates based on comparing deaths, which are relatively easy to count, to infections, which are not, almost certainly overestimate the true lethality of the virus,” epidemiologists say. #BeatingCoronaNigeria
@TFAAfrica @SIAF_NG @DrCOmole “Health officials and epidemiologists have estimated there are five to 10 people with undetected infections for every confirmed case in some communities, and at least one estimate suggests there are far more.”
@TFAAfrica @SIAF_NG @DrCOmole Which also confirms our earlier conclusion in tweets that the stats can be difficult to analyze for inferences based on too many unknowns. From our curious analysis, deaths lag infections. #BeatingCoronaNigeria
@TFAAfrica @SIAF_NG @DrCOmole The people with Covid-19 who died last week in the Nigeria were most likely infected as far back as a month ago. #BeatingCoronaNigeria
@TFAAfrica @SIAF_NG @DrCOmole So as the number of new cases reported begins to fall in hard-hit places like Lagos, FCT, Kano and other upcoming states where tests are being ramped up, the death rate will almost certainly rise as we have been seeing based on the evidence that community spread has indeed begun.
@TFAAfrica @SIAF_NG @DrCOmole These are the kind of information the people need in order to caution themselves. This is why we must do all we can to keep people indoors to avoid the spread of Coronavirus due to hunger or fear of insecurity. #BeatingCoronaNigeria
@TFAAfrica @SIAF_NG @DrCOmole Police must not only be provided for on logistics, they must be paid hazard allowance as well as given personal protective equipment to prevent them from infection from asymptomatic cases they engage on the daily. #BeatingCoronaNigeria
@TFAAfrica @SIAF_NG @DrCOmole If this is taken into consideration, a higher confident level will be recorded in the affected states and people will realize the level of emergency we are dealing with. #BeatingCoronaNigeria
@TFAAfrica @SIAF_NG @DrCOmole This is one way Government can win trust. They can’t do it alone and they must at this point collaborate and engage all the trusted channels without trying to reinvent the wheel. If the numbers are extrapolated, an estimated 5Million if not more Nigerians are endangered.
@TFAAfrica @SIAF_NG @DrCOmole By that I’m speaking of fatality or death to Coronavirus in the next 60days. We must act now and correct the failings. It is time to determine what works for us as a people. Many will be unaccounted for due to death by hunger. Our health system can’t withstand the pressure.
@TFAAfrica @SIAF_NG @DrCOmole If Govt show transparency we will achieve more and more people and firms will support the war against the pandemic with all their heart. #BeatingCoronaNigeria #TheFutureProject #SaveTheFuture 🤓
