This report by Tony Blair's thinktank on how the lockdown might be lifted makes for interesting if sobering reading...
It highlights the tiny margin for error in lifting lockdown: it's very easy to push R back over 1 and see the virus get out of control.
institute.global/sites/default/…
It highlights the tiny margin for error in lifting lockdown: it's very easy to push R back over 1 and see the virus get out of control.
institute.global/sites/default/…
Some of the measures it discusses:
- mass testing (on a truly massive scale)
- Contact tracing using apps
- Mandating mask use
- opening schools
- geographic, age and sector segmentation
- shielding of the most vulnerable population
- mass testing (on a truly massive scale)
- Contact tracing using apps
- Mandating mask use
- opening schools
- geographic, age and sector segmentation
- shielding of the most vulnerable population
It seems to do a good job of exploring (very briefly) the trade-offs and difficulties attached to each one.
It ends with a stage-by-stage exit plan, by which we (well, most of us) could tiptoe towards "normality", though a new normal somewhat different from pre-coronavirus.
It ends with a stage-by-stage exit plan, by which we (well, most of us) could tiptoe towards "normality", though a new normal somewhat different from pre-coronavirus.
Is it perfect? I'm sure it's not. But it's good to see someone taking a reasoned and logical crack at the problem, given that the UK Government shies away from any talk of how lifting the lockdown might be accomplished.
I'm sure reading it you'll be left with a number of questions.
For example, if gradual relaxation of lockdown conditions enables businesses to regain 50%-80% of their old custom, who's going to make up the difference (many won't survive long-term with such diminished numbers.)
For example, if gradual relaxation of lockdown conditions enables businesses to regain 50%-80% of their old custom, who's going to make up the difference (many won't survive long-term with such diminished numbers.)
The key is to see it for what it is: a prompt and a stepping stone to further discussion.
It is not mean to be prescriptive. It is not ordering a particular course of action.
Personally, I'm grateful for the effort that went into it.
It is not mean to be prescriptive. It is not ordering a particular course of action.
Personally, I'm grateful for the effort that went into it.
