Yes, Congress needs to get more money in.
But, GET READY for it to be gone in a heartbeat.
The loopholes are so big that accountants and tax specialists are parading down 5th Ave signing their clients up...WHY?
ANSWER:
- Not because they need it
- Not because they are at risk of going out of business
They are applying because they are eligible, it’s free money, and their accountants figured it out in a hot minute.
There are advisory firms offering webinars to teach people how #PPP works - almost like you are doing taxes and need the answer to “how to pay the lowest amount of taxes.”
Except this is disaster relief! And it’s not unlimited.
Every loan granted means someone behind is not getting one.
You know who is behind in line? The small business who needs it most.
Revisit the rules or leave the barn door open and let the stampede continue.
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What we learned from big dem donor call hosted by Wall St heavyweights a THREAD 👇
44 leading execs joined a zoom call lead by VP Harris Finance Chair, Rufus Gifford. Described as “super positive” with no specific asks from the campaign - more to provide info and start a convo
People on the call included execs from hedge funds & fortune 500 companies. Described as “big dem donors” (Mark Lasry, John Grey, Blair Effron) & some fmr. admin officials close to Obamas & Clintons ( Roger Altman, Bob Rubin, Peter Orszag) but not Biden’s inner circle.
Many have been supporting Biden as a way to defeat Trump.
Get ready boys & girls -
Banks might not wanna touch financing trump bc of the headline disaster. But it's entirely plausible someone will.
See below:
Since it’s 3bn, a loan covered by stock would be safe until the stock was down below say $6 per share. It’s a pretty good bet it will be way above if he wins. Risk looks like he loses unless the loan is paid back in 6 months which is only 6 weeks before the election.
If the race looks close, the stock will likely still be way above 6.
So the risk is by Sep 25 he looks like he’ll nearly certainly lose. You make the loan, you sold a deep out the money (out on the stock in essence. )
And maybe you can even hedge a bit if it by shorting dwac.
We don’t need to run in circles debating the definition of a recession -it’s 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP.
But we’re not trying to ace an econ 101 exam.We’re trying to understand the current and future economic climate.
It is not entirely GOOD or BAD - IT’S COMPLICATED
It's no surprise that consumer confidence is down- almost everything costs more!
Tomorrow’s GDP# will only increase recession talk.
However - unlike a normal time of challenging inflation, we have positives
- low unemployment
- strong job growth
- high rate of household savings
Jay Powell has a HARD task at hand.
If inflation was not at 9%, the fed might have cut rates to cushion the economic slowdown...but Powell has got to tackle his bigger problem first.
So we'll get the rate hike.
It will short term hurt...with the hopes it will long term help
Prices are high. Consumers are mad. But that’s not stopping them from spending.
Walmart’s earnings call defied every recent headline about labor, inflation and supply chain issues.
- WMT hired 200,000 new workers in the last 3 months. 2,200 people a day - 150,000 in stores
- Supply Chain - WMT inventory is up 11.5% - they are stocked up for Christmas
-October Retail Sales up 1.7% from September and 16.3% from last year
This is one additional indicator of how consumers are feeling. We know they are not happy – consumer sentiment is down to a 10 year low – but may still be forking over the cash for early holiday gifts ahead of supply chain concerns this holiday season.
Jeff Bezos likes Biden’s infrastructure bill — consider how would it impact him. More money pumped into the system and more jobs will likely be a win for our largest retailers (Amazon/Walmart).
We saw the boost to their businesses every time direct payments hit over the last year. When people make more (especially at the lower levels), they spend it. Our largest retailers will see direct benefits.
The concerns other corporates and business groups are expressing about the impact of raising the corporate tax rate from 21-28% will have little/no impact on Amazon, unless significant other changes are made to the tax code.
As corporate America is digesting proposed tax hikes as part of POTUS's infrastructure package, Treasury Sec. Yellen is pushing for a Global Minimum Tax Rate (lobbying other countries to commit to a tax floor).
*THREAD*
Yellen frames it as a way to “stop the race to the bottom” and foster more equitable economic growth among countries and regions.
A global minimum tax would be a giant win for Biden and could help American multinational companies who are likely to see a tax hike from being at a competitive disadvantage.